Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$410～$420 100.0%
370ドル未満 <1%
370ドル〜380ドル <1%
$380～$390 <1%
$2,430 Vol.
$2,430 Vol.
2026/05/01
370ドル未満
いいえ
370ドル〜380ドル
いいえ
$380～$390
いいえ
$390-$400
いいえ
$400～$410
いいえ
$410～$420
はい
$420〜$430
いいえ
$430〜$440
いいえ
$440～$450
いいえ
450〜460ドル
いいえ
$460超
いいえ
$410～$420 100.0%
370ドル未満 <1%
370ドル〜380ドル <1%
$380～$390 <1%
$2,430 Vol.
$2,430 Vol.
2026/05/01
370ドル未満
$304 Vol.
いいえ
370ドル〜380ドル
$68 Vol.
いいえ
$380～$390
$160 Vol.
いいえ
$390-$400
$160 Vol.
いいえ
$400～$410
$397 Vol.
いいえ
$410～$420
$295 Vol.
はい
$420〜$430
$245 Vol.
いいえ
$430〜$440
$321 Vol.
いいえ
$440～$450
$160 Vol.
いいえ
450〜460ドル
$160 Vol.
いいえ
$460超
$160 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
音量
$2,430終了日
2026/05/01マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$2,430終了日
2026/05/01マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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