Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects acute uncertainty for Microsoft (MSFT) shares closing the week of April 27, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45-47.5% across $380-$430 bins amid anticipation for Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on April 29. Recent Azure growth deceleration to 37-38% year-over-year, despite record $37.5 billion quarterly AI capex, has fueled concerns over return timelines and gross margin compression to three-year lows around 68%, exacerbated by competition from Alphabet's advancing Gemini models and OpenAI dependency risks. Differentiation hinges on earnings delivery—strong Copilot adoption (15 million paid seats) and $625 billion commercial remaining performance obligations could validate the AI flywheel, while guidance shortfalls risk a post-report swing toward lower bins. Volatility remains elevated pre-event.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$460超 21%
370ドル未満 16%
$410～$420 16%
$420〜$430 16%
新規
新規
2026/05/01
370ドル未満
16%
370ドル〜380ドル
8%
$380～$390
14%
$390-$400
15%
$400～$410
15%
$410～$420
16%
$420〜$430
16%
$430〜$440
15%
$440～$450
13%
450〜460ドル
12%
$460超
21%
$460超 21%
370ドル未満 16%
$410～$420 16%
$420〜$430 16%
新規
新規
2026/05/01
370ドル未満
$5 Vol.
16%
370ドル〜380ドル
$0 Vol.
8%
$380～$390
$0 Vol.
14%
$390-$400
$0 Vol.
15%
$400～$410
$0 Vol.
15%
$410～$420
$0 Vol.
16%
$420〜$430
$0 Vol.
16%
$430〜$440
$1 Vol.
15%
$440～$450
$0 Vol.
13%
450〜460ドル
$0 Vol.
12%
$460超
$0 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects acute uncertainty for Microsoft (MSFT) shares closing the week of April 27, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45-47.5% across $380-$430 bins amid anticipation for Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on April 29. Recent Azure growth deceleration to 37-38% year-over-year, despite record $37.5 billion quarterly AI capex, has fueled concerns over return timelines and gross margin compression to three-year lows around 68%, exacerbated by competition from Alphabet's advancing Gemini models and OpenAI dependency risks. Differentiation hinges on earnings delivery—strong Copilot adoption (15 million paid seats) and $625 billion commercial remaining performance obligations could validate the AI flywheel, while guidance shortfalls risk a post-report swing toward lower bins. Volatility remains elevated pre-event.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
音量
$6終了日
2026/05/01マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects acute uncertainty for Microsoft (MSFT) shares closing the week of April 27, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45-47.5% across $380-$430 bins amid anticipation for Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on April 29. Recent Azure growth deceleration to 37-38% year-over-year, despite record $37.5 billion quarterly AI capex, has fueled concerns over return timelines and gross margin compression to three-year lows around 68%, exacerbated by competition from Alphabet's advancing Gemini models and OpenAI dependency risks. Differentiation hinges on earnings delivery—strong Copilot adoption (15 million paid seats) and $625 billion commercial remaining performance obligations could validate the AI flywheel, while guidance shortfalls risk a post-report swing toward lower bins. Volatility remains elevated pre-event.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$6終了日
2026/05/01マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects acute uncertainty for Microsoft (MSFT) shares closing the week of April 27, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45-47.5% across $380-$430 bins amid anticipation for Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on April 29. Recent Azure growth deceleration to 37-38% year-over-year, despite record $37.5 billion quarterly AI capex, has fueled concerns over return timelines and gross margin compression to three-year lows around 68%, exacerbated by competition from Alphabet's advancing Gemini models and OpenAI dependency risks. Differentiation hinges on earnings delivery—strong Copilot adoption (15 million paid seats) and $625 billion commercial remaining performance obligations could validate the AI flywheel, while guidance shortfalls risk a post-report swing toward lower bins. Volatility remains elevated pre-event.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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