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地政学·アルゼンチン

ミレイは2027年までにアルゼンチンの大統領に就任しますか？

Market icon
地政学·アルゼンチン

ミレイは2027年までにアルゼンチンの大統領に就任しますか？

Dec 31

Dec 31

はい

9% chance
Polymarket
NEW

はい

9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Javier Milei's commanding midterm election victories in October 2025 bolstered his La Libertad Avanza party's congressional seats, enabling key legislative wins like labor law reforms in late February 2026 and the 2026 budget passage, which have stabilized his administration despite economic headwinds. Recent polls show approval dipping to 36-37% in March amid rising unemployment and corruption allegations tied to a cryptocurrency scandal, yet trader consensus at 90.8% "No" underscores the high bar for impeachment—requiring two-thirds support in the lower house and Senate—absent any formal proceedings or mass protests. With no snap elections or no-confidence mechanisms, his term through December 2027 faces barriers from scandals, health issues, or judicial rulings, though his alliance with U.S. President Trump adds diplomatic backing.

President Javier Milei's commanding midterm election victories in October 2025 bolstered his La Libertad Avanza party's congressional seats, enabling key legislative wins like labor law reforms in late February 2026 and the 2026 budget passage, which have stabilized his administration despite economic headwinds. Recent polls show approval dipping to 36-37% in March amid rising unemployment and corruption allegations tied to a cryptocurrency scandal, yet trader consensus at 90.8% "No" underscores the high bar for impeachment—requiring two-thirds support in the lower house and Senate—absent any formal proceedings or mass protests. With no snap elections or no-confidence mechanisms, his term through December 2027 faces barriers from scandals, health issues, or judicial rulings, though his alliance with U.S. President Trump adds diplomatic backing.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Javier Milei's commanding midterm election victories in October 2025 bolstered his La Libertad Avanza party's congressional seats, enabling key legislative wins like labor law reforms in late February 2026 and the 2026 budget passage, which have stabilized his administration despite economic headwinds. Recent polls show approval dipping to 36-37% in March amid rising unemployment and corruption allegations tied to a cryptocurrency scandal, yet trader consensus at 90.8% "No" underscores the high bar for impeachment—requiring two-thirds support in the lower house and Senate—absent any formal proceedings or mass protests. With no snap elections or no-confidence mechanisms, his term through December 2027 faces barriers from scandals, health issues, or judicial rulings, though his alliance with U.S. President Trump adds diplomatic backing.

President Javier Milei's commanding midterm election victories in October 2025 bolstered his La Libertad Avanza party's congressional seats, enabling key legislative wins like labor law reforms in late February 2026 and the 2026 budget passage, which have stabilized his administration despite economic headwinds. Recent polls show approval dipping to 36-37% in March amid rising unemployment and corruption allegations tied to a cryptocurrency scandal, yet trader consensus at 90.8% "No" underscores the high bar for impeachment—requiring two-thirds support in the lower house and Senate—absent any formal proceedings or mass protests. With no snap elections or no-confidence mechanisms, his term through December 2027 faces barriers from scandals, health issues, or judicial rulings, though his alliance with U.S. President Trump adds diplomatic backing.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ミレイは2027年までにアルゼンチンの大統領に就任しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年より前にミレイはアルゼンチン大統領を退任するか？」で9%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、9¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に9%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「ミレイは2027年までにアルゼンチンの大統領に就任しますか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Nov 5, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「ミレイは2027年までにアルゼンチンの大統領に就任しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「ミレイは2027年までにアルゼンチンの大統領に就任しますか？」の現在のリーダーは「2027年より前にミレイはアルゼンチン大統領を退任するか？」でわずか9%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ミレイは2027年までにアルゼンチンの大統領に就任しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。