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icon for GPT 4.5 released by...?

GPT 4.5 released by...?

icon for GPT 4.5 released by...?

GPT 4.5 released by...?

$214,094 Vol.

2025/02/28
Polymarket

$214,094 Vol.

Polymarket

February 28

$141,504 Vol.

Yes

March 31

$72,590 Vol.

Yes

On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244) This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5. If GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting. On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244) This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5. If GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5.

If GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$214,094
終了日
2025/03/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244) This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5. If GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

提案された結果: Yes

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: Yes

On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244) This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5. If GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting. On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244) This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5. If GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5.

If GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$214,094
終了日
2025/03/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244) This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5. If GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

提案された結果: Yes

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: Yes

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「GPT 4.5 released by...?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「February 28」で100%、次いで「March 31」が100%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「GPT 4.5 released by...?」は$214.1Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Feb 12, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「GPT 4.5 released by...?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「GPT 4.5 released by...?」の現在のフロントランナーは「February 28」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「March 31」で100%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「GPT 4.5 released by...?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。