Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change Federal Reserve decision in March at 100% implied probability, driven by resilient U.S. economic data and Chair Powell's recent testimony emphasizing a data-dependent pause after 2024's 100 basis points of cumulative cuts to the 4.25-4.50% fed funds range. Sticky core PCE inflation near 2.7%—above the 2% target—paired with robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%, reinforces the view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without urgent easing needs. This positioning could face challenges from hotter-than-expected CPI prints in January or February, or sudden labor market deterioration signaling recession risks, potentially reviving cut odds above the current negligible 0.2% combined for decreases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日変更なし 100.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ <1%
$260,075,340 Vol.
$260,075,340 Vol.
2026/03/18
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
いいえ
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
いいえ
変更なし
はい
25ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
いいえ
変更なし 100.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ <1%
$260,075,340 Vol.
$260,075,340 Vol.
2026/03/18
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$0 Vol.
いいえ
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$87,103,284 Vol.
いいえ
変更なし
$0 Vol.
はい
25ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$172,972,057 Vol.
いいえ
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change Federal Reserve decision in March at 100% implied probability, driven by resilient U.S. economic data and Chair Powell's recent testimony emphasizing a data-dependent pause after 2024's 100 basis points of cumulative cuts to the 4.25-4.50% fed funds range. Sticky core PCE inflation near 2.7%—above the 2% target—paired with robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%, reinforces the view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without urgent easing needs. This positioning could face challenges from hotter-than-expected CPI prints in January or February, or sudden labor market deterioration signaling recession risks, potentially reviving cut odds above the current negligible 0.2% combined for decreases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Oct 29, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
音量
$260,075,340終了日
2026/03/18マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change Federal Reserve decision in March at 100% implied probability, driven by resilient U.S. economic data and Chair Powell's recent testimony emphasizing a data-dependent pause after 2024's 100 basis points of cumulative cuts to the 4.25-4.50% fed funds range. Sticky core PCE inflation near 2.7%—above the 2% target—paired with robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%, reinforces the view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without urgent easing needs. This positioning could face challenges from hotter-than-expected CPI prints in January or February, or sudden labor market deterioration signaling recession risks, potentially reviving cut odds above the current negligible 0.2% combined for decreases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$260,075,340終了日
2026/03/18マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change Federal Reserve decision in March at 100% implied probability, driven by resilient U.S. economic data and Chair Powell's recent testimony emphasizing a data-dependent pause after 2024's 100 basis points of cumulative cuts to the 4.25-4.50% fed funds range. Sticky core PCE inflation near 2.7%—above the 2% target—paired with robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%, reinforces the view that policy remains appropriately restrictive without urgent easing needs. This positioning could face challenges from hotter-than-expected CPI prints in January or February, or sudden labor market deterioration signaling recession risks, potentially reviving cut odds above the current negligible 0.2% combined for decreases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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