Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 in Vienna favors Nordic frontrunners Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen and Sweden's "My System" by Felicia, propelled by dominant OGAE fan poll results and prediction models like The Model as of late March. Greece's "Ferto" and Israel's "Michelle" gain televote momentum from diaspora support, while a stacked draw pits them against strong entries like Estonia's Vanilla Ninja return and Georgia's freshly released "On Replay." Recent reveals of the "70 Years of Love" opening film enhance hype, but official running order and early May rehearsals in Wiener Stadthalle could spark shifts in this competitive 15-country field, where top 10 advance amid jury-public voting splits.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ユーロビジョン2026 ：初の準決勝
ユーロビジョン2026 ：初の準決勝
$371,884 Vol.
2026/05/12
フィンランド
95%
スウェーデン
94%
ギリシャ
94%
イスラエル
88%
モルドバ
82%
クロアチア
82%
セルビア
67%
リトアニア
66%
ベルギー
50%
ポーランド
56%
モンテネグロ
55%
ジョージア
45%
ポルトガル
32%
エストニア
20%
サンマリノ
12%
$371,884 Vol.
フィンランド
$326,399 Vol.
95%
スウェーデン
$1,255 Vol.
94%
ギリシャ
$3,967 Vol.
94%
イスラエル
$19,519 Vol.
88%
モルドバ
$0 Vol.
82%
クロアチア
$2,256 Vol.
82%
セルビア
$837 Vol.
67%
リトアニア
$2,304 Vol.
66%
ベルギー
$0 Vol.
50%
ポーランド
$7,153 Vol.
56%
モンテネグロ
$1,414 Vol.
55%
ジョージア
$166 Vol.
45%
ポルトガル
$0 Vol.
32%
エストニア
$1,568 Vol.
20%
サンマリノ
$5,045 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 in Vienna favors Nordic frontrunners Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen and Sweden's "My System" by Felicia, propelled by dominant OGAE fan poll results and prediction models like The Model as of late March. Greece's "Ferto" and Israel's "Michelle" gain televote momentum from diaspora support, while a stacked draw pits them against strong entries like Estonia's Vanilla Ninja return and Georgia's freshly released "On Replay." Recent reveals of the "70 Years of Love" opening film enhance hype, but official running order and early May rehearsals in Wiener Stadthalle could spark shifts in this competitive 15-country field, where top 10 advance amid jury-public voting splits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
音量
$371,884終了日
2026/05/12マーケット開始日
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 in Vienna favors Nordic frontrunners Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen and Sweden's "My System" by Felicia, propelled by dominant OGAE fan poll results and prediction models like The Model as of late March. Greece's "Ferto" and Israel's "Michelle" gain televote momentum from diaspora support, while a stacked draw pits them against strong entries like Estonia's Vanilla Ninja return and Georgia's freshly released "On Replay." Recent reveals of the "70 Years of Love" opening film enhance hype, but official running order and early May rehearsals in Wiener Stadthalle could spark shifts in this competitive 15-country field, where top 10 advance amid jury-public voting splits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
音量
$371,884終了日
2026/05/12マーケット開始日
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 in Vienna favors Nordic frontrunners Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen and Sweden's "My System" by Felicia, propelled by dominant OGAE fan poll results and prediction models like The Model as of late March. Greece's "Ferto" and Israel's "Michelle" gain televote momentum from diaspora support, while a stacked draw pits them against strong entries like Estonia's Vanilla Ninja return and Georgia's freshly released "On Replay." Recent reveals of the "70 Years of Love" opening film enhance hype, but official running order and early May rehearsals in Wiener Stadthalle could spark shifts in this competitive 15-country field, where top 10 advance amid jury-public voting splits.
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