With all 15 entries for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final confirmed via recent national finals—including Sweden's Felicia Eriksson winning Melodifestivalen with the upbeat "My System" and Georgia's Bzikebi releasing "On Replay" just weeks ago—trader consensus on Polymarket favors Nordic and Balkan frontrunners like Sweden, Greece's Akylas ("Ferto"), and Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen ("Liekinheitin") for the top 10 qualification spots out of Wiener Stadthalle on May 12. Strong televote potential from Israel's Noam Bettan ("Michelle") persists despite boycotts by five nations, while new anti-fraud voting rules (capped fan votes, diverse juries) curb past controversies. Watch the April 2 running order draw and early rehearsals for momentum shifts in this diaspora-heavy field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ユーロビジョン2026 ：初の準決勝
ユーロビジョン2026 ：初の準決勝
$363,695 Vol.
May 12, 2026
スウェーデン
98%
フィンランド
95%
ギリシャ
95%
イスラエル
89%
モルドバ
82%
クロアチア
82%
セルビア
68%
リトアニア
66%
ポーランド
56%
モンテネグロ
55%
ベルギー
50%
ジョージア
47%
ポルトガル
32%
エストニア
21%
サンマリノ
16%
$363,695 Vol.
スウェーデン
$1,185 Vol.
98%
フィンランド
$325,769 Vol.
95%
ギリシャ
$3,967 Vol.
95%
イスラエル
$19,500 Vol.
89%
モルドバ
$0 Vol.
82%
クロアチア
$2,256 Vol.
82%
セルビア
$826 Vol.
68%
リトアニア
$2,175 Vol.
66%
ポーランド
$0 Vol.
56%
モンテネグロ
$1,365 Vol.
55%
ベルギー
$0 Vol.
50%
ジョージア
$166 Vol.
47%
ポルトガル
$0 Vol.
32%
エストニア
$1,442 Vol.
21%
サンマリノ
$5,045 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.With all 15 entries for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final confirmed via recent national finals—including Sweden's Felicia Eriksson winning Melodifestivalen with the upbeat "My System" and Georgia's Bzikebi releasing "On Replay" just weeks ago—trader consensus on Polymarket favors Nordic and Balkan frontrunners like Sweden, Greece's Akylas ("Ferto"), and Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen ("Liekinheitin") for the top 10 qualification spots out of Wiener Stadthalle on May 12. Strong televote potential from Israel's Noam Bettan ("Michelle") persists despite boycotts by five nations, while new anti-fraud voting rules (capped fan votes, diverse juries) curb past controversies. Watch the April 2 running order draw and early rehearsals for momentum shifts in this diaspora-heavy field.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
音量
$363,695終了日
May 12, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.With all 15 entries for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final confirmed via recent national finals—including Sweden's Felicia Eriksson winning Melodifestivalen with the upbeat "My System" and Georgia's Bzikebi releasing "On Replay" just weeks ago—trader consensus on Polymarket favors Nordic and Balkan frontrunners like Sweden, Greece's Akylas ("Ferto"), and Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen ("Liekinheitin") for the top 10 qualification spots out of Wiener Stadthalle on May 12. Strong televote potential from Israel's Noam Bettan ("Michelle") persists despite boycotts by five nations, while new anti-fraud voting rules (capped fan votes, diverse juries) curb past controversies. Watch the April 2 running order draw and early rehearsals for momentum shifts in this diaspora-heavy field.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
音量
$363,695終了日
May 12, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With all 15 entries for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final confirmed via recent national finals—including Sweden's Felicia Eriksson winning Melodifestivalen with the upbeat "My System" and Georgia's Bzikebi releasing "On Replay" just weeks ago—trader consensus on Polymarket favors Nordic and Balkan frontrunners like Sweden, Greece's Akylas ("Ferto"), and Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen ("Liekinheitin") for the top 10 qualification spots out of Wiener Stadthalle on May 12. Strong televote potential from Israel's Noam Bettan ("Michelle") persists despite boycotts by five nations, while new anti-fraud voting rules (capped fan votes, diverse juries) curb past controversies. Watch the April 2 running order draw and early rehearsals for momentum shifts in this diaspora-heavy field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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