Polymarket traders price an 84% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target overnight interbank rate at 6.75% for the May 7 decision, reflecting a consensus pause after the central bank's dovish surprise 25 basis point cut on March 26—a 3-2 split vote prioritizing early-2026 economic weakness, including January's 0.9% contraction in activity, over accelerating headline inflation at 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March. Revised-upward inflation forecasts through Q3 2026 and Governor Rodríguez's March 30 remarks signaling the easing cycle is "close to finishing" anchor the hold bias, with modest 14.5% odds on a further cut amid resilient unemployment at 2.7%. Key catalysts include forthcoming March CPI and April 9 core inflation data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日据え置き 84%
利下げ 15%
利上げ 2.3%
$10,026 Vol.
$10,026 Vol.
2026/05/07
利下げ
15%
据え置き
84%
利上げ
2%
据え置き 84%
利下げ 15%
利上げ 2.3%
$10,026 Vol.
$10,026 Vol.
2026/05/07
利下げ
$2,504 Vol.
15%
据え置き
$4,509 Vol.
84%
利上げ
$3,013 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 84% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target overnight interbank rate at 6.75% for the May 7 decision, reflecting a consensus pause after the central bank's dovish surprise 25 basis point cut on March 26—a 3-2 split vote prioritizing early-2026 economic weakness, including January's 0.9% contraction in activity, over accelerating headline inflation at 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March. Revised-upward inflation forecasts through Q3 2026 and Governor Rodríguez's March 30 remarks signaling the easing cycle is "close to finishing" anchor the hold bias, with modest 14.5% odds on a further cut amid resilient unemployment at 2.7%. Key catalysts include forthcoming March CPI and April 9 core inflation data.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
音量
$10,026終了日
2026/05/07マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 84% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target overnight interbank rate at 6.75% for the May 7 decision, reflecting a consensus pause after the central bank's dovish surprise 25 basis point cut on March 26—a 3-2 split vote prioritizing early-2026 economic weakness, including January's 0.9% contraction in activity, over accelerating headline inflation at 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March. Revised-upward inflation forecasts through Q3 2026 and Governor Rodríguez's March 30 remarks signaling the easing cycle is "close to finishing" anchor the hold bias, with modest 14.5% odds on a further cut amid resilient unemployment at 2.7%. Key catalysts include forthcoming March CPI and April 9 core inflation data.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$10,026終了日
2026/05/07マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price an 84% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target overnight interbank rate at 6.75% for the May 7 decision, reflecting a consensus pause after the central bank's dovish surprise 25 basis point cut on March 26—a 3-2 split vote prioritizing early-2026 economic weakness, including January's 0.9% contraction in activity, over accelerating headline inflation at 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March. Revised-upward inflation forecasts through Q3 2026 and Governor Rodríguez's March 30 remarks signaling the easing cycle is "close to finishing" anchor the hold bias, with modest 14.5% odds on a further cut amid resilient unemployment at 2.7%. Key catalysts include forthcoming March CPI and April 9 core inflation data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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