Traders assign an 86.5% probability to “No” primarily because Tesla has begun limited Cybercab assembly at Giga Texas but has not yet achieved the regulatory clearances, unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability, or commercial sales volume required to deliver vehicles to customers at or below $30,000 in 2026. The company’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior language targeting volume production this year, citing the need for expanded 4680 battery output and continued FSD development. With only months remaining and historical timeline slippage, the market-implied odds reflect skepticism that Tesla can complete the necessary approvals and ramp meaningful sales before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further FSD software milestones and any state-level robotaxi operating permits.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTesla venderà una Cybercab per 30.000 o meno nel 2026?
Tesla venderà una Cybercab per 30.000 o meno nel 2026?
Sì
14% probabilità
$47,914 Vol.
$47,914 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
14% probabilità
$47,914 Vol.
$47,914 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 86.5% probability to “No” primarily because Tesla has begun limited Cybercab assembly at Giga Texas but has not yet achieved the regulatory clearances, unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability, or commercial sales volume required to deliver vehicles to customers at or below $30,000 in 2026. The company’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior language targeting volume production this year, citing the need for expanded 4680 battery output and continued FSD development. With only months remaining and historical timeline slippage, the market-implied odds reflect skepticism that Tesla can complete the necessary approvals and ramp meaningful sales before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further FSD software milestones and any state-level robotaxi operating permits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$47,914Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 86.5% probability to “No” primarily because Tesla has begun limited Cybercab assembly at Giga Texas but has not yet achieved the regulatory clearances, unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability, or commercial sales volume required to deliver vehicles to customers at or below $30,000 in 2026. The company’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior language targeting volume production this year, citing the need for expanded 4680 battery output and continued FSD development. With only months remaining and historical timeline slippage, the market-implied odds reflect skepticism that Tesla can complete the necessary approvals and ramp meaningful sales before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further FSD software milestones and any state-level robotaxi operating permits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,914Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 86.5% probability to “No” primarily because Tesla has begun limited Cybercab assembly at Giga Texas but has not yet achieved the regulatory clearances, unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability, or commercial sales volume required to deliver vehicles to customers at or below $30,000 in 2026. The company’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior language targeting volume production this year, citing the need for expanded 4680 battery output and continued FSD development. With only months remaining and historical timeline slippage, the market-implied odds reflect skepticism that Tesla can complete the necessary approvals and ramp meaningful sales before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further FSD software milestones and any state-level robotaxi operating permits.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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