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Geopolitica·Informatore

Un agente iraniano verrà addebitato negli Stati Uniti entro il 30 aprile?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Informatore

Un agente iraniano verrà addebitato negli Stati Uniti entro il 30 aprile?

Sì

4% probabilità
Polymarket

$33,278 Vol.

Sì

4% probabilità
Polymarket

$33,278 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no U.S. criminal charges or indictment against any individual alleged to act as an Iranian government agent by April 30, driven by the absence of DOJ or FBI announcements in recent weeks despite heightened enforcement. Immigration-focused actions dominate, including ICE's April 4 detention of Qasem Soleimani's niece and grandniece after State Department green card revocations, and April 14 custody of Seyed Eissa Hashemi—son of a 1979 U.S. embassy hostage-taker—along with family members. These fall short of the criminal threshold for market resolution. Earlier March conviction of IRGC-linked Asif Merchant for murder-for-hire highlights DOJ capacity, but no fresh cases have emerged amid U.S.-Iran tensions. With 12 days left, realistic shifts require late-breaking arrests of fugitives like Majid Dastjani Farahani or uncovered plots prompting swift indictments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$33,278
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Trader consensus implies a 96.5% probability of no U.S. criminal charges or indictment against any individual alleged to act as an Iranian government agent by April 30, driven by the absence of DOJ or FBI announcements in recent weeks despite heightened enforcement. Immigration-focused actions dominate, including ICE's April 4 detention of Qasem Soleimani's niece and grandniece after State Department green card revocations, and April 14 custody of Seyed Eissa Hashemi—son of a 1979 U.S. embassy hostage-taker—along with family members. These fall short of the criminal threshold for market resolution. Earlier March conviction of IRGC-linked Asif Merchant for murder-for-hire highlights DOJ capacity, but no fresh cases have emerged amid U.S.-Iran tensions. With 12 days left, realistic shifts require late-breaking arrests of fugitives like Majid Dastjani Farahani or uncovered plots prompting swift indictments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$33,278
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Un agente iraniano verrà addebitato negli Stati Uniti entro il 30 aprile?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Un agente iraniano sarà accusato negli Stati Uniti entro il 30 aprile?" a 4%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 4¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 4% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Un agente iraniano verrà addebitato negli Stati Uniti entro il 30 aprile?" ha generato $33.3K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 11, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Un agente iraniano verrà addebitato negli Stati Uniti entro il 30 aprile?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "Un agente iraniano verrà addebitato negli Stati Uniti entro il 30 aprile?" è "Un agente iraniano sarà accusato negli Stati Uniti entro il 30 aprile?" a solo 4%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Un agente iraniano verrà addebitato negli Stati Uniti entro il 30 aprile?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.