Trader consensus reflects an 84.2% implied probability against Alberta holding an independence referendum in 2026, driven by a recent Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on April 10 granting First Nations a temporary stay that pauses Elections Alberta's verification of the "A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence" citizen initiative petition amid claims it threatens treaty rights. Separatists claimed to surpass the 177,732-signature threshold by late March, but with collection ongoing until May 2 and validation halted, procedural hurdles under the Citizen Initiative Act loom large, requiring Legislative Assembly action unlikely under Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party government, which announced a separate October 19 provincial referendum on immigration and policy issues. A recent April 8 poll shows separatism support at a five-year high but only around 30%, underscoring limited momentum for constitutional secession.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$52,968 Vol.
$52,968 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$52,968 Vol.
$52,968 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 84.2% implied probability against Alberta holding an independence referendum in 2026, driven by a recent Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on April 10 granting First Nations a temporary stay that pauses Elections Alberta's verification of the "A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence" citizen initiative petition amid claims it threatens treaty rights. Separatists claimed to surpass the 177,732-signature threshold by late March, but with collection ongoing until May 2 and validation halted, procedural hurdles under the Citizen Initiative Act loom large, requiring Legislative Assembly action unlikely under Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party government, which announced a separate October 19 provincial referendum on immigration and policy issues. A recent April 8 poll shows separatism support at a five-year high but only around 30%, underscoring limited momentum for constitutional secession.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$52,968Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 84.2% implied probability against Alberta holding an independence referendum in 2026, driven by a recent Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on April 10 granting First Nations a temporary stay that pauses Elections Alberta's verification of the "A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence" citizen initiative petition amid claims it threatens treaty rights. Separatists claimed to surpass the 177,732-signature threshold by late March, but with collection ongoing until May 2 and validation halted, procedural hurdles under the Citizen Initiative Act loom large, requiring Legislative Assembly action unlikely under Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party government, which announced a separate October 19 provincial referendum on immigration and policy issues. A recent April 8 poll shows separatism support at a five-year high but only around 30%, underscoring limited momentum for constitutional secession.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$52,968Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84.2% implied probability against Alberta holding an independence referendum in 2026, driven by a recent Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on April 10 granting First Nations a temporary stay that pauses Elections Alberta's verification of the "A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence" citizen initiative petition amid claims it threatens treaty rights. Separatists claimed to surpass the 177,732-signature threshold by late March, but with collection ongoing until May 2 and validation halted, procedural hurdles under the Citizen Initiative Act loom large, requiring Legislative Assembly action unlikely under Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party government, which announced a separate October 19 provincial referendum on immigration and policy issues. A recent April 8 poll shows separatism support at a five-year high but only around 30%, underscoring limited momentum for constitutional secession.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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