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Politica·Medio Oriente

Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?

Market icon
Politica·Medio Oriente

Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?

Sì

14% probabilità
Polymarket

$50,970 Vol.

Sì

14% probabilità
Polymarket

$50,970 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% on US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by stalled 2025-2026 nuclear negotiations and a fragile two-week ceasefire following recent military escalations between the US, Israel, and Iran. President Trump has signaled proximity to a deal but warned of termination absent progress by mid-April, with talks reverting to square one amid Iranian military asset movements and no commitments to diplomatic normalization. Spain's April 9 reopening of its Tehran embassy marks a limited Western thaw, but US sanctions persist alongside alerts for Iran-aligned threats targeting American missions abroad. The embassy, closed since the 1980 hostage crisis, faces steep barriers to restoration amid ongoing hostilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$50,970
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% on US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by stalled 2025-2026 nuclear negotiations and a fragile two-week ceasefire following recent military escalations between the US, Israel, and Iran. President Trump has signaled proximity to a deal but warned of termination absent progress by mid-April, with talks reverting to square one amid Iranian military asset movements and no commitments to diplomatic normalization. Spain's April 9 reopening of its Tehran embassy marks a limited Western thaw, but US sanctions persist alongside alerts for Iran-aligned threats targeting American missions abroad. The embassy, closed since the 1980 hostage crisis, faces steep barriers to restoration amid ongoing hostilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$50,970
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?" a 14%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 14¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 14% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?" ha generato $51K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 1, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?" è "Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?" a 14%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 14% a quell'esito. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.