The rematch between Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke and Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd District has tilted toward Cooke in trader consensus, reflecting her consistent edge in available polling and stronger overall fundraising. Recent surveys from mid-2026, including those conducted in June, showed Cooke ahead by four points among likely voters in the rural-suburban district that Trump carried by roughly seven points in 2024 while Van Orden won by under three. Cooke secured broad endorsements spanning moderate and progressive Democrats after her August primary victory, while Van Orden ran unopposed in his. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic heading into the November general election, with the outcome likely to hinge on turnout among swing voters and late-cycle spending in this key battleground.