Mary Peltola holds a narrow lead in first-choice votes over incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race, with roughly three-quarters of ballots counted and thousands of absentee and remote votes still outstanding. Ranked-choice tabulation, scheduled to begin after November 18, is expected to favor Peltola because a substantial share of voters who selected the similarly named Daniel J. Sullivan as their first choice ranked her second. Traders view this preference flow, combined with Peltola’s projected gains among remaining ballots, as decisive in a state that uses instant-runoff mechanics. A decisive shift in the final ballots or unexpected second-choice patterns could still alter the outcome, though current data indicate limited room for reversal.