Mary Peltola holds a clear edge in Alaska’s November 3 Senate contest under ranked-choice voting, driven by her 49.5 percent primary showing and consistent polling leads over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Recent surveys, including an AARP-commissioned poll and New York Times/Siena results, place Peltola ahead in first-round preferences and projected final rounds after minor candidates are eliminated. Traders appear to weigh her strength among independents and younger voters, along with the mechanics of ranked-choice tabulation that favor vote consolidation behind the top two finishers. Sullivan’s path relies on Republican turnout and skepticism toward the voting system, yet current data shows limited movement in his favor since the August primary. Minor candidates remain negligible factors in the consensus.