President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities remains the central factor shaping market probabilities for a U.S. explosive nuclear test by mid- or late-2026. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the Department of State emphasized subcritical experiments, stockpile stewardship simulations, or readiness preparations rather than yield-producing detonations, consistent with the U.S. moratorium in place since 1992. Technical assessments indicate underground explosive testing would require 24–36 months of preparation under current National Nuclear Security Administration plans, while the ongoing NPT Review Conference and international diplomatic pressure add further constraints. No explosive tests have occurred since the announcement, and upcoming budget and arms control developments could influence any shift in policy direction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$667,460 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
2%
30 settembre 2026
6%
31 dicembre 2026
9%
$667,460 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$40,114 Vol.
2%
30 settembre 2026
$6,655 Vol.
6%
31 dicembre 2026
$10,472 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities remains the central factor shaping market probabilities for a U.S. explosive nuclear test by mid- or late-2026. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the Department of State emphasized subcritical experiments, stockpile stewardship simulations, or readiness preparations rather than yield-producing detonations, consistent with the U.S. moratorium in place since 1992. Technical assessments indicate underground explosive testing would require 24–36 months of preparation under current National Nuclear Security Administration plans, while the ongoing NPT Review Conference and international diplomatic pressure add further constraints. No explosive tests have occurred since the announcement, and upcoming budget and arms control developments could influence any shift in policy direction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$667,460Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities remains the central factor shaping market probabilities for a U.S. explosive nuclear test by mid- or late-2026. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the Department of State emphasized subcritical experiments, stockpile stewardship simulations, or readiness preparations rather than yield-producing detonations, consistent with the U.S. moratorium in place since 1992. Technical assessments indicate underground explosive testing would require 24–36 months of preparation under current National Nuclear Security Administration plans, while the ongoing NPT Review Conference and international diplomatic pressure add further constraints. No explosive tests have occurred since the announcement, and upcoming budget and arms control developments could influence any shift in policy direction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$667,460Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities remains the central factor shaping market probabilities for a U.S. explosive nuclear test by mid- or late-2026. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the Department of State emphasized subcritical experiments, stockpile stewardship simulations, or readiness preparations rather than yield-producing detonations, consistent with the U.S. moratorium in place since 1992. Technical assessments indicate underground explosive testing would require 24–36 months of preparation under current National Nuclear Security Administration plans, while the ongoing NPT Review Conference and international diplomatic pressure add further constraints. No explosive tests have occurred since the announcement, and upcoming budget and arms control developments could influence any shift in policy direction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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