The United States continues its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing, in place since 1992 and supported by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, which certify warhead reliability without detonations. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a test by late 2026, driven by strong congressional opposition, including Senator Jacky Rosen's early April 2026 NNSS visit where she observed non-explosive stockpile certification and secured nominee commitments deeming tests unnecessary. Despite the Trump administration's deliberations following its October 2025 directive—citing Russia and China's alleged low-yield activities—and New START's February expiration, Nevada lawmakers' legislation requiring congressional approval and historical bipartisan certifications maintain inertia. Upcoming FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act debates and NNSA leadership confirmations represent key decision points.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$638,252 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
1%
30 settembre 2026
8%
31 dicembre 2026
14%
$638,252 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$23,084 Vol.
1%
30 settembre 2026
$2,096 Vol.
8%
31 dicembre 2026
$2,853 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States continues its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing, in place since 1992 and supported by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, which certify warhead reliability without detonations. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a test by late 2026, driven by strong congressional opposition, including Senator Jacky Rosen's early April 2026 NNSS visit where she observed non-explosive stockpile certification and secured nominee commitments deeming tests unnecessary. Despite the Trump administration's deliberations following its October 2025 directive—citing Russia and China's alleged low-yield activities—and New START's February expiration, Nevada lawmakers' legislation requiring congressional approval and historical bipartisan certifications maintain inertia. Upcoming FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act debates and NNSA leadership confirmations represent key decision points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$638,252Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States continues its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing, in place since 1992 and supported by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, which certify warhead reliability without detonations. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a test by late 2026, driven by strong congressional opposition, including Senator Jacky Rosen's early April 2026 NNSS visit where she observed non-explosive stockpile certification and secured nominee commitments deeming tests unnecessary. Despite the Trump administration's deliberations following its October 2025 directive—citing Russia and China's alleged low-yield activities—and New START's February expiration, Nevada lawmakers' legislation requiring congressional approval and historical bipartisan certifications maintain inertia. Upcoming FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act debates and NNSA leadership confirmations represent key decision points.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$638,252Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States continues its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing, in place since 1992 and supported by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, which certify warhead reliability without detonations. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a test by late 2026, driven by strong congressional opposition, including Senator Jacky Rosen's early April 2026 NNSS visit where she observed non-explosive stockpile certification and secured nominee commitments deeming tests unnecessary. Despite the Trump administration's deliberations following its October 2025 directive—citing Russia and China's alleged low-yield activities—and New START's February expiration, Nevada lawmakers' legislation requiring congressional approval and historical bipartisan certifications maintain inertia. Upcoming FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act debates and NNSA leadership confirmations represent key decision points.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti