The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on subcritical experiments and computer simulations to certify its arsenal. In late 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to prepare for resumption amid concerns over Russian and Chinese testing, with the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act authorizing such activities. No full-yield test has occurred by early May 2026, facing technical hurdles estimated at 24-36 months for infrastructure readiness and opposition from arms control advocates seeking to block funding. Recent Department of Energy focus on small modular reactors for bases underscores non-weapons priorities, while congressional appropriations debates loom as key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$662,771 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
1%
30 settembre 2026
6%
31 dicembre 2026
7%
$662,771 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$36,807 Vol.
1%
30 settembre 2026
$5,584 Vol.
6%
31 dicembre 2026
$10,161 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on subcritical experiments and computer simulations to certify its arsenal. In late 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to prepare for resumption amid concerns over Russian and Chinese testing, with the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act authorizing such activities. No full-yield test has occurred by early May 2026, facing technical hurdles estimated at 24-36 months for infrastructure readiness and opposition from arms control advocates seeking to block funding. Recent Department of Energy focus on small modular reactors for bases underscores non-weapons priorities, while congressional appropriations debates loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$662,771Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on subcritical experiments and computer simulations to certify its arsenal. In late 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to prepare for resumption amid concerns over Russian and Chinese testing, with the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act authorizing such activities. No full-yield test has occurred by early May 2026, facing technical hurdles estimated at 24-36 months for infrastructure readiness and opposition from arms control advocates seeking to block funding. Recent Department of Energy focus on small modular reactors for bases underscores non-weapons priorities, while congressional appropriations debates loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$662,771Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on subcritical experiments and computer simulations to certify its arsenal. In late 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to prepare for resumption amid concerns over Russian and Chinese testing, with the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act authorizing such activities. No full-yield test has occurred by early May 2026, facing technical hurdles estimated at 24-36 months for infrastructure readiness and opposition from arms control advocates seeking to block funding. Recent Department of Energy focus on small modular reactors for bases underscores non-weapons priorities, while congressional appropriations debates loom as key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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