The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration and lab directors assessing the stockpile as safe and effective through subcritical experiments, simulations, and the Stockpile Stewardship Program. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing testing "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted debate but were later clarified by officials as potentially referring to non-yield activities, with no explosive test conducted by mid-2026. New START's expiration earlier that year and concerns over Russian and Chinese activities have fueled discussion of test readiness, yet strong domestic opposition—including unanimous Nevada legislative resolutions, congressional proposals to codify the moratorium, and broad public support—combined with technical, diplomatic, and arms-control considerations continue to constrain policy shifts. Traders assign low probabilities to a test by late 2026 amid these structural barriers and lack of follow-through.