Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$658,492 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
3%
30 settembre 2026
6%
31 dicembre 2026
10%
$658,492 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$33,298 Vol.
3%
30 settembre 2026
$5,584 Vol.
6%
31 dicembre 2026
$9,392 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$658,492Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$658,492Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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