President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China has shaped trader views on any near-term resumption, though Energy Department and State Department officials have since clarified that current plans center on subcritical experiments, system tests, and non-explosive evaluations rather than full-yield underground detonations. The United States maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, supported by the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, and restarting explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation. Administration statements through early 2026 have emphasized readiness assessments without confirming timelines or yields, while international monitoring bodies and congressional oversight continue to track any shifts in policy or funding for the National Nuclear Security Administration.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$795,296 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre 2026
1%
31 dicembre 2026
5%
$795,296 Vol.
30 settembre 2026
$57,565 Vol.
1%
31 dicembre 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China has shaped trader views on any near-term resumption, though Energy Department and State Department officials have since clarified that current plans center on subcritical experiments, system tests, and non-explosive evaluations rather than full-yield underground detonations. The United States maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, supported by the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, and restarting explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation. Administration statements through early 2026 have emphasized readiness assessments without confirming timelines or yields, while international monitoring bodies and congressional oversight continue to track any shifts in policy or funding for the National Nuclear Security Administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,296Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China has shaped trader views on any near-term resumption, though Energy Department and State Department officials have since clarified that current plans center on subcritical experiments, system tests, and non-explosive evaluations rather than full-yield underground detonations. The United States maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, supported by the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, and restarting explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation. Administration statements through early 2026 have emphasized readiness assessments without confirming timelines or yields, while international monitoring bodies and congressional oversight continue to track any shifts in policy or funding for the National Nuclear Security Administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,296Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China has shaped trader views on any near-term resumption, though Energy Department and State Department officials have since clarified that current plans center on subcritical experiments, system tests, and non-explosive evaluations rather than full-yield underground detonations. The United States maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, supported by the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, and restarting explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation. Administration statements through early 2026 have emphasized readiness assessments without confirming timelines or yields, while international monitoring bodies and congressional oversight continue to track any shifts in policy or funding for the National Nuclear Security Administration.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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