Russia has not conducted an explosive nuclear test since 1990, adhering to a de facto moratorium despite withdrawing ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023. Recent geopolitical tensions, including the February 2026 expiration of the New START arms control treaty and ongoing Ukraine conflict escalations, have fueled nuclear rhetoric, with Yars intercontinental ballistic missile drills in early April and Sarmat ICBM activity near Kazakhstan reported last week. However, Kremlin officials denied secret tests in February, and no verifiable preparations or seismic signals from the Novaya Zemlya site have emerged in the past 30 days. Traders monitor for diplomatic breakthroughs or Ukraine developments that could prompt announcements, amid risks of global backlash and escalation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$1,342,393 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
2%
30 settembre 2026
9%
31 dicembre 2026
12%
$1,342,393 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$4,269 Vol.
2%
30 settembre 2026
$1,400 Vol.
9%
31 dicembre 2026
$12,151 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted an explosive nuclear test since 1990, adhering to a de facto moratorium despite withdrawing ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023. Recent geopolitical tensions, including the February 2026 expiration of the New START arms control treaty and ongoing Ukraine conflict escalations, have fueled nuclear rhetoric, with Yars intercontinental ballistic missile drills in early April and Sarmat ICBM activity near Kazakhstan reported last week. However, Kremlin officials denied secret tests in February, and no verifiable preparations or seismic signals from the Novaya Zemlya site have emerged in the past 30 days. Traders monitor for diplomatic breakthroughs or Ukraine developments that could prompt announcements, amid risks of global backlash and escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,342,393Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted an explosive nuclear test since 1990, adhering to a de facto moratorium despite withdrawing ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023. Recent geopolitical tensions, including the February 2026 expiration of the New START arms control treaty and ongoing Ukraine conflict escalations, have fueled nuclear rhetoric, with Yars intercontinental ballistic missile drills in early April and Sarmat ICBM activity near Kazakhstan reported last week. However, Kremlin officials denied secret tests in February, and no verifiable preparations or seismic signals from the Novaya Zemlya site have emerged in the past 30 days. Traders monitor for diplomatic breakthroughs or Ukraine developments that could prompt announcements, amid risks of global backlash and escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,342,393Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has not conducted an explosive nuclear test since 1990, adhering to a de facto moratorium despite withdrawing ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023. Recent geopolitical tensions, including the February 2026 expiration of the New START arms control treaty and ongoing Ukraine conflict escalations, have fueled nuclear rhetoric, with Yars intercontinental ballistic missile drills in early April and Sarmat ICBM activity near Kazakhstan reported last week. However, Kremlin officials denied secret tests in February, and no verifiable preparations or seismic signals from the Novaya Zemlya site have emerged in the past 30 days. Traders monitor for diplomatic breakthroughs or Ukraine developments that could prompt announcements, amid risks of global backlash and escalation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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