This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration in February 2026, which removed limits on deployed strategic warheads. Trader consensus reflects low expectations, anchored by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov's May 5 proposal to upgrade Novaya Zemlya test infrastructure and ongoing nuclear-capable missile exercises at the Kura range through May 10 ahead of Victory Day parades. No detonation plans have materialized amid Ukraine war escalations and U.S. accusations of prior low-yield tests, with diplomatic talks on arms control as a potential de-escalation factor. Barriers include international backlash, readiness gaps, and mutual deterrence signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration in February 2026, which removed limits on deployed strategic warheads. Trader consensus reflects low expectations, anchored by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov's May 5 proposal to upgrade Novaya Zemlya test infrastructure and ongoing nuclear-capable missile exercises at the Kura range through May 10 ahead of Victory Day parades. No detonation plans have materialized amid Ukraine war escalations and U.S. accusations of prior low-yield tests, with diplomatic talks on arms control as a potential de-escalation factor. Barriers include international backlash, readiness gaps, and mutual deterrence signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 6 2026
Continued Russian military aggression in Ukraine with no nuclear test despite nuclear saber rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Reports of Russia’s conventional military actions and nuclear threats without actual nuclear testing maintained the market’s low probability, reflecting skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
May 5 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to
September 30, 2026 rises to 6%2%
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to abide by New START limits, reducing perceived testing intent
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
May 1 2026
U.S. intelligence community reiterates Russia’s nuclear modernization amid failed tests and no new detonations
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
The latest U.S. assessment confirmed Russia’s ongoing modernization and failed test attempts without any nuclear test, sustaining the market’s low odds.
Apr 30 2026
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
Apr 30 2026
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 30 2026
Russian Defense Ministry reports successful training completion of Yars missile system driver-mechanics arriving for service
Routine personnel training for nuclear-capable missile systems indicated ongoing readiness but no test, supporting low market probabilities.
Apr 27 2026
Russian forces launch massive missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Escalation in conventional strikes near nuclear sites raised concerns but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining low test probability.
Apr 22 2026
Congressional report highlights Russia’s nuclear arsenal modernization and rejection of limits on nonstrategic nuclear weapons
The report emphasized Russia’s nuclear posture and modernization but noted no nuclear test activity, supporting the market’s stable low probability for a test.
Apr 21 2026
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
Apr 21 2026
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
Apr 21 2026
Head of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization warns U.S. and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Robert Floyd cautioned at the UN that any nuclear test by the U.S. or Russia would trigger a dangerous global spiral, reinforcing international pressure on Russia to maintain its testing moratorium and dampening market expectations.
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Apr 2 2026
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
Apr 2 2026
Russian Strategic Missile Forces conduct large-scale drills in Siberia involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia held major nuclear missile drills with Yars ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear readiness and signaling deterrence without conducting nuclear tests, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Apr 1 2026
U.S. intelligence reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts without new detonations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The U.S. 2026 Annual Threat Assessment revealed Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal amid multiple failed tests of new systems, signaling capability challenges but no confirmed nuclear test, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Mar 28 2026
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration in February 2026, which removed limits on deployed strategic warheads. Trader consensus reflects low expectations, anchored by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov's May 5 proposal to upgrade Novaya Zemlya test infrastructure and ongoing nuclear-capable missile exercises at the Kura range through May 10 ahead of Victory Day parades. No detonation plans have materialized amid Ukraine war escalations and U.S. accusations of prior low-yield tests, with diplomatic talks on arms control as a potential de-escalation factor. Barriers include international backlash, readiness gaps, and mutual deterrence signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration in February 2026, which removed limits on deployed strategic warheads. Trader consensus reflects low expectations, anchored by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov's May 5 proposal to upgrade Novaya Zemlya test infrastructure and ongoing nuclear-capable missile exercises at the Kura range through May 10 ahead of Victory Day parades. No detonation plans have materialized amid Ukraine war escalations and U.S. accusations of prior low-yield tests, with diplomatic talks on arms control as a potential de-escalation factor. Barriers include international backlash, readiness gaps, and mutual deterrence signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 6 2026
Continued Russian military aggression in Ukraine with no nuclear test despite nuclear saber rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Reports of Russia’s conventional military actions and nuclear threats without actual nuclear testing maintained the market’s low probability, reflecting skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
May 5 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to
September 30, 2026 rises to 6%2%
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to abide by New START limits, reducing perceived testing intent
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
May 1 2026
U.S. intelligence community reiterates Russia’s nuclear modernization amid failed tests and no new detonations
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
The latest U.S. assessment confirmed Russia’s ongoing modernization and failed test attempts without any nuclear test, sustaining the market’s low odds.
Apr 30 2026
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
Apr 30 2026
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 30 2026
Russian Defense Ministry reports successful training completion of Yars missile system driver-mechanics arriving for service
Routine personnel training for nuclear-capable missile systems indicated ongoing readiness but no test, supporting low market probabilities.
Apr 27 2026
Russian forces launch massive missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Escalation in conventional strikes near nuclear sites raised concerns but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining low test probability.
Apr 22 2026
Congressional report highlights Russia’s nuclear arsenal modernization and rejection of limits on nonstrategic nuclear weapons
The report emphasized Russia’s nuclear posture and modernization but noted no nuclear test activity, supporting the market’s stable low probability for a test.
Apr 21 2026
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
Apr 21 2026
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
Apr 21 2026
Head of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization warns U.S. and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Robert Floyd cautioned at the UN that any nuclear test by the U.S. or Russia would trigger a dangerous global spiral, reinforcing international pressure on Russia to maintain its testing moratorium and dampening market expectations.
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Apr 2 2026
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
Apr 2 2026
Russian Strategic Missile Forces conduct large-scale drills in Siberia involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia held major nuclear missile drills with Yars ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear readiness and signaling deterrence without conducting nuclear tests, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Apr 1 2026
U.S. intelligence reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts without new detonations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The U.S. 2026 Annual Threat Assessment revealed Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal amid multiple failed tests of new systems, signaling capability challenges but no confirmed nuclear test, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Mar 28 2026
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti
"Test nucleare russo di...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 6 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "31 dicembre 2026" a 8%, seguito da "30 settembre 2026" a 5%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 8¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 8% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "Test nucleare russo di...?" ha generato $1.4 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 5, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "Test nucleare russo di...?", esplora i 6 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "Test nucleare russo di...?" è "31 dicembre 2026" a solo 8%, con "30 settembre 2026" vicino a 5%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.
Le regole di risoluzione per "Test nucleare russo di...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "Test nucleare russo di...?". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $1.4 million scambiati su "Test nucleare russo di...?", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "Test nucleare russo di...?", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 8¢ per "31 dicembre 2026" nel mercato "Test nucleare russo di...?" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 8% che "31 dicembre 2026" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 8¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 92¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
La data di fine programmata del mercato "Test nucleare russo di...?" è trascorsa, ma il mercato non è stato ancora ufficialmente risolto. La data di fine indica quando ci si aspetta che l'evento sottostante si verifichi o diventi conoscibile. Non è il momento in cui il trading si ferma. Il mercato rimane aperto al trading fino a quando l'esito non viene formalmente risolto attraverso il processo di risoluzione. Puoi ancora comprare, vendere o chiudere la tua posizione mentre il mercato è in attesa di risoluzione. Controlla il tracker dello stato di risoluzione e la sezione "Regole" su questa pagina per aggiornamenti sulla tempistica di risoluzione.
Il mercato "Test nucleare russo di...?" ha una discussione in crescita di 7 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "Test nucleare russo di...?". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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Domande frequenti