Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 26.5% ("No" at 73.5%), reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations amid unresolved territorial disputes, where Russia insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from the four annexed regions including Donbas. Despite Zelenskiy aide Kyrylo Budanov's April 10 statement signaling potential progress toward compromise, an Easter truce faltered days later, Russian strikes killed 16 in Kyiv on April 16, and new Germany-Ukraine defense pacts bolster Kyiv's long-range capabilities. The ongoing Iran conflict diverts U.S. focus, delaying talks per Zelenskiy, while Russia's spring offensive sustains pressure—highlighting formidable barriers absent major diplomatic breakthroughs before a reported U.S. August deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$202,289 Vol.
$202,289 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$202,289 Vol.
$202,289 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 26.5% ("No" at 73.5%), reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations amid unresolved territorial disputes, where Russia insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from the four annexed regions including Donbas. Despite Zelenskiy aide Kyrylo Budanov's April 10 statement signaling potential progress toward compromise, an Easter truce faltered days later, Russian strikes killed 16 in Kyiv on April 16, and new Germany-Ukraine defense pacts bolster Kyiv's long-range capabilities. The ongoing Iran conflict diverts U.S. focus, delaying talks per Zelenskiy, while Russia's spring offensive sustains pressure—highlighting formidable barriers absent major diplomatic breakthroughs before a reported U.S. August deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$202,289Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 26.5% ("No" at 73.5%), reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations amid unresolved territorial disputes, where Russia insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from the four annexed regions including Donbas. Despite Zelenskiy aide Kyrylo Budanov's April 10 statement signaling potential progress toward compromise, an Easter truce faltered days later, Russian strikes killed 16 in Kyiv on April 16, and new Germany-Ukraine defense pacts bolster Kyiv's long-range capabilities. The ongoing Iran conflict diverts U.S. focus, delaying talks per Zelenskiy, while Russia's spring offensive sustains pressure—highlighting formidable barriers absent major diplomatic breakthroughs before a reported U.S. August deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$202,289Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 26.5% ("No" at 73.5%), reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations amid unresolved territorial disputes, where Russia insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from the four annexed regions including Donbas. Despite Zelenskiy aide Kyrylo Budanov's April 10 statement signaling potential progress toward compromise, an Easter truce faltered days later, Russian strikes killed 16 in Kyiv on April 16, and new Germany-Ukraine defense pacts bolster Kyiv's long-range capabilities. The ongoing Iran conflict diverts U.S. focus, delaying talks per Zelenskiy, while Russia's spring offensive sustains pressure—highlighting formidable barriers absent major diplomatic breakthroughs before a reported U.S. August deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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