Recent redistricting in 2025 altered Texas' 15th District boundaries, incorporating more areas with Democratic-leaning voters from the Rio Grande Valley and shifting the seat toward greater competitiveness despite Donald Trump's 18-point margin in the prior configuration. Polling averages now show Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido narrowly ahead or tied with incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz, prompting forecasters such as the Cook Political Report to move the race to toss-up status. Pulido's high name recognition as a Tejano musician and targeted outreach at community events have boosted support among Hispanic voters, while Democratic committees have directed significant ad spending on economic and border issues. De La Cruz maintains strong fundraising and emphasizes infrastructure and security priorities, yet trader consensus in the market reflects Pulido's polling edge and the district's altered electoral math heading into the November general election.