Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, capitalizing on endorsements from President Trump and Senator Ted Cruz along with redistricting that strengthened his Montgomery County base. The district carries a consistent Republican lean reflected in multiple forecasters’ solid or safe ratings, which underpins trader consensus around Toth’s commanding position ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat Shaun Finnie, the unopposed primary winner, has raised substantial funds but confronts structural headwinds in a seat that has not supported a Democratic candidate in recent cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited and would likely require significant late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen national shift or candidate-specific events within the final weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTX-02 House Election Winner
TX-02 House Election Winner
$29,579 Vol.
$29,579 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Steve Toth (R)
95%
Shaun Finnie (D)
6%
$29,579 Vol.
$29,579 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Steve Toth (R)
$15,248 Vol.
95%
Shaun Finnie (D)
$14,331 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, capitalizing on endorsements from President Trump and Senator Ted Cruz along with redistricting that strengthened his Montgomery County base. The district carries a consistent Republican lean reflected in multiple forecasters’ solid or safe ratings, which underpins trader consensus around Toth’s commanding position ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat Shaun Finnie, the unopposed primary winner, has raised substantial funds but confronts structural headwinds in a seat that has not supported a Democratic candidate in recent cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited and would likely require significant late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen national shift or candidate-specific events within the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$29,579Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, capitalizing on endorsements from President Trump and Senator Ted Cruz along with redistricting that strengthened his Montgomery County base. The district carries a consistent Republican lean reflected in multiple forecasters’ solid or safe ratings, which underpins trader consensus around Toth’s commanding position ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat Shaun Finnie, the unopposed primary winner, has raised substantial funds but confronts structural headwinds in a seat that has not supported a Democratic candidate in recent cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited and would likely require significant late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen national shift or candidate-specific events within the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,579Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, capitalizing on endorsements from President Trump and Senator Ted Cruz along with redistricting that strengthened his Montgomery County base. The district carries a consistent Republican lean reflected in multiple forecasters’ solid or safe ratings, which underpins trader consensus around Toth’s commanding position ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat Shaun Finnie, the unopposed primary winner, has raised substantial funds but confronts structural headwinds in a seat that has not supported a Democratic candidate in recent cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited and would likely require significant late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen national shift or candidate-specific events within the final weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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