Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, positioning him as the clear favorite in Texas's 2nd Congressional District. The seat, covering northwest Houston suburbs including The Woodlands, carries a strong Republican lean, with Donald Trump carrying it by roughly 23 points in 2024 under the current map. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan composition and limited Democratic infrastructure. Forecasters project Toth winning by double-digit margins consistent with recent cycles. The dominant market odds reflect this structural advantage and the absence of major developments since the primary that would alter the balance. Late-cycle events such as unexpected national shifts, candidate health issues, or significant turnout surprises remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.