Republican Ryan Zinke’s March 2026 retirement announcement has opened Montana’s 1st congressional district for the November general election, drawing multiple candidates into both parties’ June 2 primaries. The district’s R+5 Partisan Voter Index and recent Republican performance underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee, though the absence of incumbency creates a narrower margin than in prior cycles. Analysts rate the seat Likely Republican, noting Democratic efforts to target the open contest in a midterm environment. Primary outcomes and general-election turnout among independents and crossover voters remain key variables that could influence final positioning before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMT-01 House Election Winner
MT-01 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Republican Party
55%
Democratic Party
44%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Republican Party
$1,011 Vol.
55%
Democratic Party
$392 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Ryan Zinke’s March 2026 retirement announcement has opened Montana’s 1st congressional district for the November general election, drawing multiple candidates into both parties’ June 2 primaries. The district’s R+5 Partisan Voter Index and recent Republican performance underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee, though the absence of incumbency creates a narrower margin than in prior cycles. Analysts rate the seat Likely Republican, noting Democratic efforts to target the open contest in a midterm environment. Primary outcomes and general-election turnout among independents and crossover voters remain key variables that could influence final positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,402Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Ryan Zinke’s March 2026 retirement announcement has opened Montana’s 1st congressional district for the November general election, drawing multiple candidates into both parties’ June 2 primaries. The district’s R+5 Partisan Voter Index and recent Republican performance underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee, though the absence of incumbency creates a narrower margin than in prior cycles. Analysts rate the seat Likely Republican, noting Democratic efforts to target the open contest in a midterm environment. Primary outcomes and general-election turnout among independents and crossover voters remain key variables that could influence final positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,402Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Ryan Zinke’s March 2026 retirement announcement has opened Montana’s 1st congressional district for the November general election, drawing multiple candidates into both parties’ June 2 primaries. The district’s R+5 Partisan Voter Index and recent Republican performance underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee, though the absence of incumbency creates a narrower margin than in prior cycles. Analysts rate the seat Likely Republican, noting Democratic efforts to target the open contest in a midterm environment. Primary outcomes and general-election turnout among independents and crossover voters remain key variables that could influence final positioning before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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