Missouri’s 5th congressional district, long anchored by Kansas City’s Democratic base and represented by incumbent Emanuel Cleaver, faces a newly enacted congressional map that shifts its partisan balance toward Republicans. The Missouri Supreme Court recently upheld the redrawn boundaries, which analysts estimate move the district from a double-digit Democratic lean to roughly an eight-point Republican advantage based on prior voting patterns. Multiple Republican candidates, including state Sen. Rick Brattin and Navy veteran Taylor Burks, have filed to challenge Cleaver in the August primary, while he remains the sole Democrat in the race. Traders appear to view the map change and resulting GOP recruitment as the dominant factor tilting implied probabilities in favor of a Republican victory in November.