No at 88% reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes combined with current global seismic conditions. USGS monitoring shows only moderate activity in late May 2026, with the year's largest event a 7.5 near Tonga and recent quakes limited to the 6.0–6.7 range offshore Japan, the East Pacific Rise, and Indonesia. No foreshock swarms, aftershock sequences, or stress indicators point to imminent rupture on major subduction zones or faults. Short-term probabilities remain low absent elevated signals, consistent with historical patterns where M8+ events occur infrequently and without reliable precursors. Continuous USGS data releases will provide the next updates on any changes in seismic rates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMega terremoto entro il 30 giugno?
Mega terremoto entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$68,609 Vol.
$68,609 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$68,609 Vol.
$68,609 Vol.
30 giu 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No at 88% reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes combined with current global seismic conditions. USGS monitoring shows only moderate activity in late May 2026, with the year's largest event a 7.5 near Tonga and recent quakes limited to the 6.0–6.7 range offshore Japan, the East Pacific Rise, and Indonesia. No foreshock swarms, aftershock sequences, or stress indicators point to imminent rupture on major subduction zones or faults. Short-term probabilities remain low absent elevated signals, consistent with historical patterns where M8+ events occur infrequently and without reliable precursors. Continuous USGS data releases will provide the next updates on any changes in seismic rates.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$68,609Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No at 88% reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes combined with current global seismic conditions. USGS monitoring shows only moderate activity in late May 2026, with the year's largest event a 7.5 near Tonga and recent quakes limited to the 6.0–6.7 range offshore Japan, the East Pacific Rise, and Indonesia. No foreshock swarms, aftershock sequences, or stress indicators point to imminent rupture on major subduction zones or faults. Short-term probabilities remain low absent elevated signals, consistent with historical patterns where M8+ events occur infrequently and without reliable precursors. Continuous USGS data releases will provide the next updates on any changes in seismic rates.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$68,609Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 88% reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes combined with current global seismic conditions. USGS monitoring shows only moderate activity in late May 2026, with the year's largest event a 7.5 near Tonga and recent quakes limited to the 6.0–6.7 range offshore Japan, the East Pacific Rise, and Indonesia. No foreshock swarms, aftershock sequences, or stress indicators point to imminent rupture on major subduction zones or faults. Short-term probabilities remain low absent elevated signals, consistent with historical patterns where M8+ events occur infrequently and without reliable precursors. Continuous USGS data releases will provide the next updates on any changes in seismic rates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti