The Bureau of Labor Statistics' March 2026 Employment Situation report, released today, confirmed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent—down slightly from February's 4.4 percent amid a robust 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain that doubled consensus estimates of around 59,000–140,000. This rebound from February's unexpected job losses solidified trader consensus, with Polymarket's implied probability reaching 100 percent on 4.3 percent as capital flowed heavily into the outcome matching official data. Key supports include broad-based hiring in health care, construction, and transportation, alongside a dip in the labor force participation rate. While initial BLS figures rarely face downward revisions, an upward adjustment in subsequent months could theoretically challenge resolution, though markets typically lock in on first prints ahead of the next report on May 8.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4.3% 100.0%
≤3.9% <1%
4.0% <1%
4.1% <1%
$308,214 Vol.
$308,214 Vol.
3 apr 2026
≤3.9%
No
4.0%
No
4.1%
No
4.2%
No
4.3%
Yes
4.4%
No
4.5%
No
4.6%
No
≥4.7%
No
4.3% 100.0%
≤3.9% <1%
4.0% <1%
4.1% <1%
$308,214 Vol.
$308,214 Vol.
3 apr 2026
≤3.9%
$32,627 Vol.
No
4.0%
$123,767 Vol.
No
4.1%
$14,016 Vol.
No
4.2%
$22,947 Vol.
No
4.3%
$38,733 Vol.
Yes
4.4%
$15,926 Vol.
No
4.5%
$6,805 Vol.
No
4.6%
$21,528 Vol.
No
≥4.7%
$31,864 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The Bureau of Labor Statistics' March 2026 Employment Situation report, released today, confirmed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent—down slightly from February's 4.4 percent amid a robust 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain that doubled consensus estimates of around 59,000–140,000. This rebound from February's unexpected job losses solidified trader consensus, with Polymarket's implied probability reaching 100 percent on 4.3 percent as capital flowed heavily into the outcome matching official data. Key supports include broad-based hiring in health care, construction, and transportation, alongside a dip in the labor force participation rate. While initial BLS figures rarely face downward revisions, an upward adjustment in subsequent months could theoretically challenge resolution, though markets typically lock in on first prints ahead of the next report on May 8.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$308,214Data di fine
3 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The Bureau of Labor Statistics' March 2026 Employment Situation report, released today, confirmed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent—down slightly from February's 4.4 percent amid a robust 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain that doubled consensus estimates of around 59,000–140,000. This rebound from February's unexpected job losses solidified trader consensus, with Polymarket's implied probability reaching 100 percent on 4.3 percent as capital flowed heavily into the outcome matching official data. Key supports include broad-based hiring in health care, construction, and transportation, alongside a dip in the labor force participation rate. While initial BLS figures rarely face downward revisions, an upward adjustment in subsequent months could theoretically challenge resolution, though markets typically lock in on first prints ahead of the next report on May 8.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$308,214Data di fine
3 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' March 2026 Employment Situation report, released today, confirmed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent—down slightly from February's 4.4 percent amid a robust 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain that doubled consensus estimates of around 59,000–140,000. This rebound from February's unexpected job losses solidified trader consensus, with Polymarket's implied probability reaching 100 percent on 4.3 percent as capital flowed heavily into the outcome matching official data. Key supports include broad-based hiring in health care, construction, and transportation, alongside a dip in the labor force participation rate. While initial BLS figures rarely face downward revisions, an upward adjustment in subsequent months could theoretically challenge resolution, though markets typically lock in on first prints ahead of the next report on May 8.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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