Illinois' status as a Democratic stronghold, with Chicago's overwhelming urban vote dominating statewide outcomes, positions trader consensus heavily favoring Democrat Juliana Stratton at 89.5% implied probability to win the open U.S. Senate seat following Dick Durbin's retirement, against Republican Don Tracy's 3.4%. Stratton secured the March 17 primary nomination with Gov. JB Pritzker's backing after a competitive field led by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, while Tracy prevailed in the GOP primary amid weak Republican performance historically—Democrats have held the seat since 1998 with double-digit margins. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted odds, reflecting stable polling trends, partisan registration advantages, and low GOP base rates in battleground math. The November 3 general election looms, with potential for national midterm waves or scandals to alter trajectories.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$24,092 Vol.
$24,092 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
85%
Repubblicano
3%
$24,092 Vol.
$24,092 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
$12,145 Vol.
85%
Repubblicano
$11,947 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois' status as a Democratic stronghold, with Chicago's overwhelming urban vote dominating statewide outcomes, positions trader consensus heavily favoring Democrat Juliana Stratton at 89.5% implied probability to win the open U.S. Senate seat following Dick Durbin's retirement, against Republican Don Tracy's 3.4%. Stratton secured the March 17 primary nomination with Gov. JB Pritzker's backing after a competitive field led by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, while Tracy prevailed in the GOP primary amid weak Republican performance historically—Democrats have held the seat since 1998 with double-digit margins. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted odds, reflecting stable polling trends, partisan registration advantages, and low GOP base rates in battleground math. The November 3 general election looms, with potential for national midterm waves or scandals to alter trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$24,092Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois' status as a Democratic stronghold, with Chicago's overwhelming urban vote dominating statewide outcomes, positions trader consensus heavily favoring Democrat Juliana Stratton at 89.5% implied probability to win the open U.S. Senate seat following Dick Durbin's retirement, against Republican Don Tracy's 3.4%. Stratton secured the March 17 primary nomination with Gov. JB Pritzker's backing after a competitive field led by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, while Tracy prevailed in the GOP primary amid weak Republican performance historically—Democrats have held the seat since 1998 with double-digit margins. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted odds, reflecting stable polling trends, partisan registration advantages, and low GOP base rates in battleground math. The November 3 general election looms, with potential for national midterm waves or scandals to alter trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$24,092Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois' status as a Democratic stronghold, with Chicago's overwhelming urban vote dominating statewide outcomes, positions trader consensus heavily favoring Democrat Juliana Stratton at 89.5% implied probability to win the open U.S. Senate seat following Dick Durbin's retirement, against Republican Don Tracy's 3.4%. Stratton secured the March 17 primary nomination with Gov. JB Pritzker's backing after a competitive field led by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, while Tracy prevailed in the GOP primary amid weak Republican performance historically—Democrats have held the seat since 1998 with double-digit margins. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted odds, reflecting stable polling trends, partisan registration advantages, and low GOP base rates in battleground math. The November 3 general election looms, with potential for national midterm waves or scandals to alter trajectories.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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