Jimmy Patronis, the Republican incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed Matt Gaetz in Florida's solidly Republican 1st Congressional District, dominates trader sentiment at 92% implied probability for a GOP victory, fueled by his superior fundraising—over $3 million raised versus challengers' totals under $500,000 each—and the district's entrenched conservative lean per Cook Political Report ratings. The crowded Republican primary on August 18 features low-funded rivals like Gene Valentino and Douglas Chico, while Democrat Gay Valimont, on her third bid, trails with just $37,000 raised. Scenarios to upend this include a primary upset, scandal targeting Patronis, or a national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers and historical GOP dominance in FL-01 make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera FL-01
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera FL-01
$108,694 Vol.
$108,694 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
92%
Partito Democratico
3%
$108,694 Vol.
$108,694 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$85,394 Vol.
92%
Partito Democratico
$23,299 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jimmy Patronis, the Republican incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed Matt Gaetz in Florida's solidly Republican 1st Congressional District, dominates trader sentiment at 92% implied probability for a GOP victory, fueled by his superior fundraising—over $3 million raised versus challengers' totals under $500,000 each—and the district's entrenched conservative lean per Cook Political Report ratings. The crowded Republican primary on August 18 features low-funded rivals like Gene Valentino and Douglas Chico, while Democrat Gay Valimont, on her third bid, trails with just $37,000 raised. Scenarios to upend this include a primary upset, scandal targeting Patronis, or a national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers and historical GOP dominance in FL-01 make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$108,694Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jimmy Patronis, the Republican incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed Matt Gaetz in Florida's solidly Republican 1st Congressional District, dominates trader sentiment at 92% implied probability for a GOP victory, fueled by his superior fundraising—over $3 million raised versus challengers' totals under $500,000 each—and the district's entrenched conservative lean per Cook Political Report ratings. The crowded Republican primary on August 18 features low-funded rivals like Gene Valentino and Douglas Chico, while Democrat Gay Valimont, on her third bid, trails with just $37,000 raised. Scenarios to upend this include a primary upset, scandal targeting Patronis, or a national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers and historical GOP dominance in FL-01 make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$108,694Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jimmy Patronis, the Republican incumbent who won a 2025 special election to succeed Matt Gaetz in Florida's solidly Republican 1st Congressional District, dominates trader sentiment at 92% implied probability for a GOP victory, fueled by his superior fundraising—over $3 million raised versus challengers' totals under $500,000 each—and the district's entrenched conservative lean per Cook Political Report ratings. The crowded Republican primary on August 18 features low-funded rivals like Gene Valentino and Douglas Chico, while Democrat Gay Valimont, on her third bid, trails with just $37,000 raised. Scenarios to upend this include a primary upset, scandal targeting Patronis, or a national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers and historical GOP dominance in FL-01 make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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