Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate trader sentiment in the Crude Oil (CL) market, supporting the 70% implied probability that June settlement exceeds $84 per barrel. Sharp inventory draws projected by the EIA at 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, combined with Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, have embedded a significant risk premium into near-term futures. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump’s decision to defer military action, prompted modest price easing toward $103, yet persistent supply constraints and delayed Hormuz reopening keep market-implied odds firmly skewed toward elevated levels through June. Traders are closely monitoring weekly EIA inventory releases and any resumption of tanker traffic as potential catalysts that could narrow the gap to lower price buckets.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoA cosa si stabilizzerà il petrolio greggio (CL) a giugno?
A cosa si stabilizzerà il petrolio greggio (CL) a giugno?
>$84 73%
$77-$84 18%
$70-$77 8.1%
$63-$70 2.3%
$164,435 Vol.
$164,435 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sotto $42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49–$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
73%
>$84 73%
$77-$84 18%
$70-$77 8.1%
$63-$70 2.3%
$164,435 Vol.
$164,435 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sotto $42
$17,467 Vol.
1%
$42-$49
$6,228 Vol.
1%
$49–$56
$7,407 Vol.
1%
$56-$63
$7,507 Vol.
1%
$63-$70
$21,138 Vol.
2%
$70-$77
$12,766 Vol.
8%
$77-$84
$14,007 Vol.
18%
>$84
$77,919 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate trader sentiment in the Crude Oil (CL) market, supporting the 70% implied probability that June settlement exceeds $84 per barrel. Sharp inventory draws projected by the EIA at 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, combined with Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, have embedded a significant risk premium into near-term futures. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump’s decision to defer military action, prompted modest price easing toward $103, yet persistent supply constraints and delayed Hormuz reopening keep market-implied odds firmly skewed toward elevated levels through June. Traders are closely monitoring weekly EIA inventory releases and any resumption of tanker traffic as potential catalysts that could narrow the gap to lower price buckets.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercato aperto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Volume
$164,435Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate trader sentiment in the Crude Oil (CL) market, supporting the 70% implied probability that June settlement exceeds $84 per barrel. Sharp inventory draws projected by the EIA at 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, combined with Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, have embedded a significant risk premium into near-term futures. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump’s decision to defer military action, prompted modest price easing toward $103, yet persistent supply constraints and delayed Hormuz reopening keep market-implied odds firmly skewed toward elevated levels through June. Traders are closely monitoring weekly EIA inventory releases and any resumption of tanker traffic as potential catalysts that could narrow the gap to lower price buckets.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$164,435Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate trader sentiment in the Crude Oil (CL) market, supporting the 70% implied probability that June settlement exceeds $84 per barrel. Sharp inventory draws projected by the EIA at 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, combined with Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, have embedded a significant risk premium into near-term futures. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump’s decision to defer military action, prompted modest price easing toward $103, yet persistent supply constraints and delayed Hormuz reopening keep market-implied odds firmly skewed toward elevated levels through June. Traders are closely monitoring weekly EIA inventory releases and any resumption of tanker traffic as potential catalysts that could narrow the gap to lower price buckets.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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