Geopolitical supply disruptions from the US-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February have triggered Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, supporting elevated WTI crude levels near $88 per barrel as of May 29. These factors underpin the 56% market-implied probability for June settlement above $84, while the 21% odds on the $77–$84 band reflect expectations of gradual supply normalization amid recent ceasefire extension reports that have driven sharp weekly price declines of over 9%. Lowered 2026 demand growth forecasts from OPEC and the IEA further temper upside risks, with weekly EIA inventory data and any progress toward reopening the strait serving as key near-term catalysts ahead of final June trading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoA cosa si stabilizzerà il petrolio greggio (CL) a giugno?
>$84 56%
$77-$84 21%
$70-$77 11.6%
$63-$70 2.7%
$205,043 Vol.
$205,043 Vol.
Sotto $42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49–$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
12%
$77-$84
21%
>$84
56%
>$84 56%
$77-$84 21%
$70-$77 11.6%
$63-$70 2.7%
$205,043 Vol.
$205,043 Vol.
Sotto $42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49–$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
12%
$77-$84
21%
>$84
56%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercato aperto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply disruptions from the US-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February have triggered Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, supporting elevated WTI crude levels near $88 per barrel as of May 29. These factors underpin the 56% market-implied probability for June settlement above $84, while the 21% odds on the $77–$84 band reflect expectations of gradual supply normalization amid recent ceasefire extension reports that have driven sharp weekly price declines of over 9%. Lowered 2026 demand growth forecasts from OPEC and the IEA further temper upside risks, with weekly EIA inventory data and any progress toward reopening the strait serving as key near-term catalysts ahead of final June trading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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