The Republican Party holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-05 House race due to the district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and the strong position of incumbent Representative Tom McClintock, who has represented the area since 2009 without facing serious primary opposition. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features McClintock against a fragmented Democratic field that includes Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud, limiting any unified challenge. These structural factors, combined with the absence of notable shifts in recent polling or endorsements, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-05 House Election Winner
CA-05 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$3,891 Vol.
83%
Democratic Party
$1,493 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-05 House race due to the district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and the strong position of incumbent Representative Tom McClintock, who has represented the area since 2009 without facing serious primary opposition. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features McClintock against a fragmented Democratic field that includes Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud, limiting any unified challenge. These structural factors, combined with the absence of notable shifts in recent polling or endorsements, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$5,384Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-05 House race due to the district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and the strong position of incumbent Representative Tom McClintock, who has represented the area since 2009 without facing serious primary opposition. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features McClintock against a fragmented Democratic field that includes Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud, limiting any unified challenge. These structural factors, combined with the absence of notable shifts in recent polling or endorsements, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,384Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-05 House race due to the district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and the strong position of incumbent Representative Tom McClintock, who has represented the area since 2009 without facing serious primary opposition. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features McClintock against a fragmented Democratic field that includes Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud, limiting any unified challenge. These structural factors, combined with the absence of notable shifts in recent polling or endorsements, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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