Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.8% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April 28-29 Copom meeting, reflecting the easing cycle's momentum following the March 18 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first in nearly two years—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target. This positioning persists despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year and the latest Focus survey (April 14) raising 2026 forecasts to 4.71%, exceeding the 4.5% upper tolerance band, driven by fuel pressures and fiscal risks. A realistic challenge would be hotter-than-expected activity data or escalated geopolitical oil shocks prompting a pause to anchor expectations, though economists still eye end-2026 Selic at around 12.5%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRiduzione 94.0%
Nessuna variazione 5.2%
Aumento <1%
$298,746 Vol.
$298,746 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Aumento
1%
Nessuna variazione
5%
Riduzione
94%
Riduzione 94.0%
Nessuna variazione 5.2%
Aumento <1%
$298,746 Vol.
$298,746 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Aumento
$156,459 Vol.
1%
Nessuna variazione
$69,237 Vol.
5%
Riduzione
$73,157 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.8% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April 28-29 Copom meeting, reflecting the easing cycle's momentum following the March 18 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first in nearly two years—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target. This positioning persists despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year and the latest Focus survey (April 14) raising 2026 forecasts to 4.71%, exceeding the 4.5% upper tolerance band, driven by fuel pressures and fiscal risks. A realistic challenge would be hotter-than-expected activity data or escalated geopolitical oil shocks prompting a pause to anchor expectations, though economists still eye end-2026 Selic at around 12.5%.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$298,746Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.8% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April 28-29 Copom meeting, reflecting the easing cycle's momentum following the March 18 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first in nearly two years—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target. This positioning persists despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year and the latest Focus survey (April 14) raising 2026 forecasts to 4.71%, exceeding the 4.5% upper tolerance band, driven by fuel pressures and fiscal risks. A realistic challenge would be hotter-than-expected activity data or escalated geopolitical oil shocks prompting a pause to anchor expectations, though economists still eye end-2026 Selic at around 12.5%.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$298,746Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.8% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April 28-29 Copom meeting, reflecting the easing cycle's momentum following the March 18 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first in nearly two years—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target. This positioning persists despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year and the latest Focus survey (April 14) raising 2026 forecasts to 4.71%, exceeding the 4.5% upper tolerance band, driven by fuel pressures and fiscal risks. A realistic challenge would be hotter-than-expected activity data or escalated geopolitical oil shocks prompting a pause to anchor expectations, though economists still eye end-2026 Selic at around 12.5%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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