Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, extending the easing cycle initiated with March's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% amid cooling core inflation pressures despite an oil shock. This positioning reflects Focus survey expectations of end-2026 Selic at 12.50%, BCB's projected inflation convergence to 3.3% by Q3 2027 within the 3% target band (±1.5%), and resilient labor market dynamics supporting gradual disinflation. March IPCA accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year on transport costs, yet markets dismiss near-term upside risks. A challenge could arise from sustained inflation surprises or fiscal expansion ahead of elections, potentially prompting a pause. The April decision, likely late-month, remains the key catalyst.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRiduzione 94.0%
Nessuna variazione 5.1%
Aumento <1%
$298,855 Vol.
$298,855 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Aumento
1%
Nessuna variazione
5%
Riduzione
94%
Riduzione 94.0%
Nessuna variazione 5.1%
Aumento <1%
$298,855 Vol.
$298,855 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Aumento
$156,459 Vol.
1%
Nessuna variazione
$69,237 Vol.
5%
Riduzione
$73,159 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, extending the easing cycle initiated with March's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% amid cooling core inflation pressures despite an oil shock. This positioning reflects Focus survey expectations of end-2026 Selic at 12.50%, BCB's projected inflation convergence to 3.3% by Q3 2027 within the 3% target band (±1.5%), and resilient labor market dynamics supporting gradual disinflation. March IPCA accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year on transport costs, yet markets dismiss near-term upside risks. A challenge could arise from sustained inflation surprises or fiscal expansion ahead of elections, potentially prompting a pause. The April decision, likely late-month, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$298,855Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, extending the easing cycle initiated with March's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% amid cooling core inflation pressures despite an oil shock. This positioning reflects Focus survey expectations of end-2026 Selic at 12.50%, BCB's projected inflation convergence to 3.3% by Q3 2027 within the 3% target band (±1.5%), and resilient labor market dynamics supporting gradual disinflation. March IPCA accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year on transport costs, yet markets dismiss near-term upside risks. A challenge could arise from sustained inflation surprises or fiscal expansion ahead of elections, potentially prompting a pause. The April decision, likely late-month, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$298,855Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, extending the easing cycle initiated with March's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% amid cooling core inflation pressures despite an oil shock. This positioning reflects Focus survey expectations of end-2026 Selic at 12.50%, BCB's projected inflation convergence to 3.3% by Q3 2027 within the 3% target band (±1.5%), and resilient labor market dynamics supporting gradual disinflation. March IPCA accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year on transport costs, yet markets dismiss near-term upside risks. A challenge could arise from sustained inflation surprises or fiscal expansion ahead of elections, potentially prompting a pause. The April decision, likely late-month, remains the key catalyst.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti