Maura Sullivan holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the NH-01 Democratic primary, driven by her substantial fundraising advantage—over $3.3 million raised compared to Stefany Shaheen’s roughly $2.4 million—and stronger recent polling numbers. Late August and early September surveys from Saint Anselm College showed Sullivan ahead or statistically tied with Shaheen in the low-to-mid 20s, reversing earlier deficits. Sullivan’s background as a Marine veteran and Obama administration official has secured key endorsements from veterans’ groups and aligned with voter priorities in the open-seat race to succeed Rep. Chris Pappas. Shaheen, leveraging name recognition as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s daughter, has countered with attacks on outside funding and AIPAC-linked donors but trails in cash on hand and momentum. Minor candidates like Carleigh Beriont and Heath Howard remain far behind on resources and support. The September 8 primary date leaves little room for further shifts.