Recent polling averages place Shas at roughly 7–8 Knesset seats two weeks before the October 27 election, with individual surveys ranging from 7 to 10. The party’s ultra-Orthodox Sephardi base has shown stable support amid broader volatility between Likud and Yashar, while surplus-vote agreements with United Torah Judaism and competition from other religious lists limit upside potential. Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to the 6–7 and 8–9 seat bands, reflecting narrow historical ranges for Shas and the influence of Haredi turnout in the final weeks. A late surge in religious-voter mobilization or unexpected erosion among coalition partners could shift the outcome toward 10-plus seats, whereas weaker mobilization would favor the lower range.