The Unity party, formed by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein in August 2026, withdrew from the October 27 Knesset election before candidate lists closed in early September, leaving it ineligible to appear on ballots. Recent polls show no measurable support for the list, consistent with its absence from the race amid a crowded field dominated by established parties such as Yashar, Likud, and B’Yachad. This structural barrier under Israel’s proportional representation system with a 3.25% threshold drives the near-certain trader consensus for a sub-0.5% share. Late developments capable of shifting the outcome remain limited to improbable scenarios such as a court-ordered reinstatement or post-election recount anomalies, neither of which has precedent in comparable cases.