Mary Peltola holds a narrow but consistent lead in first-choice votes in Alaska’s November 3 Senate contest under ranked-choice voting, with roughly 48.6 percent to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 47.5 percent as counting continues into mid-November. Recent tallies of absentee and mail ballots have widened her edge, while the two minor candidates together account for under 4 percent and are expected to redistribute primarily to Peltola in subsequent rounds. Traders assign her a 98.9 percent implied probability because her first-preference advantage appears sufficient to survive elimination of the lower-polling candidates and because historical RCV patterns in Alaska favor the leader in first choices. Remaining remote and late-arriving ballots, final RCV tabulation scheduled around November 18, and any certification disputes represent the principal pathways that could still alter the outcome.