Mary Peltola holds a strong lead in trader pricing for the November 3 Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting, driven by her dominant 49.5% finish in the August top-four primary and recent polling that shows her ahead or nearly tied with incumbent Dan Sullivan after final-round tabulation. Several surveys from late September and early October, including those simulating RCV, give Peltola narrow edges among independents and younger voters, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the contest to Leans Democratic—the first such rating for an Alaska Senate race in 18 years. Sullivan’s path remains viable through strong Republican base turnout and the state’s historical voting patterns, though minor candidates on the ballot have limited impact on the final matchup. The race’s competitiveness continues to hinge on turnout and late-cycle momentum in the final month.