Mary Peltola holds a widening lead in first-choice votes over incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s ranked-choice Senate contest, with unofficial tallies showing her at roughly 49% to his 47% after more than 80% of ballots have been counted. Recent updates from the Division of Elections have expanded her margin to several thousand votes, consistent with patterns in early, absentee, and urban precincts. Under the state’s RCV system, redistribution of votes from minor candidates such as Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is scheduled for mid-November if neither reaches 50%. Traders assign Peltola overwhelming probability because partial RCV modeling and remaining ballot trends favor her. A reversal would require unusually strong performance by Sullivan in outstanding rural and questioned ballots or unexpected shifts in second-choice preferences during tabulation.