Mary Peltola holds a widening first-choice vote lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s November 3 Senate contest, now at roughly 48.6% to 47.5% with about three-quarters of ballots counted and additional early and absentee votes still arriving. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system will redistribute preferences among lower candidates if no one reaches 50% initially, with tabulation scheduled for November 18. The presence of a same-name independent candidate has sparked legal and partisan disputes, including a DOJ lawsuit and gubernatorial investigation, yet these have not altered the current tally trajectory. Traders assign Peltola overwhelming odds because her margin has grown with each update and remaining ballots appear unlikely to reverse the gap, though a concentrated surge for Sullivan or successful certification challenges could still shift the outcome before final results.