Recent polling averages place the PP ahead at around 32% and Vox at 18-19%, projecting a combined 198-201 seats in the 350-seat Congress—well above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority in most simulations. This positioning follows Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s October 5 announcement of a snap general election for November 29 after parliament rejected housing decrees amid nationwide protests over rising rents and evictions. The PSOE has declined to roughly 26% while Vox has more than doubled its 2023 seat total in projections, reflecting gains among right-leaning voters. Multiple independent surveys conducted since the dissolution of the Cortes show the PP-Vox bloc exceeding a majority in over 99% of modeled outcomes, underpinning trader consensus on the implied probability. The campaign begins November 13.