Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in Florida’s U.S. Senate special election due to her incumbency advantage after appointment to the seat, prior statewide victories as attorney general, and consistent Republican consolidation at 91% support in recent surveys. The latest Mason-Dixon poll shows her ahead 50% to 40%, extending an edge that widened after earlier dead-heat readings in September. Florida’s Republican registration advantage and lack of Democratic statewide wins since 2018 reinforce trader consensus around her position. Angie Nixon, who upset a better-funded primary opponent, draws strong Democratic loyalty and edges among independents in some data, but faces structural headwinds in a state where crossover voting has proven limited. Late shifts could occur through turnout surges, debate performances, or national economic developments before November 3.