María Elvira Salazar holds a 62.5% implied probability in the Florida 27th congressional district race because she enters as the Republican incumbent with a substantial fundraising edge and name recognition in a district that leans Republican by roughly six points on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Recent internal polling from the Rodriguez campaign showed the candidates tied at 45% among likely voters in late August, prompting nonpartisan forecasters to shift the rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. The tightening stems from backlash among Hispanic voters over federal immigration enforcement, which led Salazar to release a campaign ad criticizing aspects of the Trump administration’s approach and to publicly urge distinctions between criminal and noncriminal cases. Both candidates are Cuban-American former journalists, and early voting begins later this month ahead of the November 3 general election.