**PP holds an 84.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Spain’s snap general election on November 29, 2026, while PSOE stands at 15.5%.** Recent national polls conducted in late September and early October show the Partido Popular consistently leading with roughly 33% vote share, seven to eight points ahead of the governing PSOE. The gap has persisted across multiple survey firms despite the election being called after parliamentary defeats on housing decrees. Voter intentions favor PP as the largest party, with seat projections indicating it would outpace PSOE even if regional and smaller parties fragment the remainder of the vote. The snap vote, triggered by legislative setbacks on rental protections and evictions amid public protests, has not shifted these trends in the initial days of the campaign. Traders’ consensus reflects this polling stability and the structural advantage for the leading opposition party under Spain’s electoral system.