Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to retain CA-15 in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of lopsided Democratic margins—Mullin won 73% in 2024 against Republican Anna Cheng Kramer. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days beyond routine endorsements, solidifying the race as Solid Democratic per Cook Political Report ratings. The top-two primary on June 2 features weak challengers, including lone Republican Charles Hoelter, with Mullin's fundraising dominance. Realistic shifts would require a major scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national Republican wave altering Bay Area turnout dynamics.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$103,866 Vol.
$103,866 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$103,866 Vol.
$103,866 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$84,853 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$19,013 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to retain CA-15 in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of lopsided Democratic margins—Mullin won 73% in 2024 against Republican Anna Cheng Kramer. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days beyond routine endorsements, solidifying the race as Solid Democratic per Cook Political Report ratings. The top-two primary on June 2 features weak challengers, including lone Republican Charles Hoelter, with Mullin's fundraising dominance. Realistic shifts would require a major scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national Republican wave altering Bay Area turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$103,866Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to retain CA-15 in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of lopsided Democratic margins—Mullin won 73% in 2024 against Republican Anna Cheng Kramer. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days beyond routine endorsements, solidifying the race as Solid Democratic per Cook Political Report ratings. The top-two primary on June 2 features weak challengers, including lone Republican Charles Hoelter, with Mullin's fundraising dominance. Realistic shifts would require a major scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national Republican wave altering Bay Area turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$103,866Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to retain CA-15 in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of lopsided Democratic margins—Mullin won 73% in 2024 against Republican Anna Cheng Kramer. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days beyond routine endorsements, solidifying the race as Solid Democratic per Cook Political Report ratings. The top-two primary on June 2 features weak challengers, including lone Republican Charles Hoelter, with Mullin's fundraising dominance. Realistic shifts would require a major scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national Republican wave altering Bay Area turnout dynamics.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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