Morena holds an 87% implied probability of winning the most seats in Mexico’s June 2027 Chamber of Deputies election, reflecting sustained polling leads of 20-plus points over the nearest rival and the party’s structural advantages. Recent surveys show Morena at 35–42% preference, well ahead of the fragmented opposition, while its alliances with PVEM and PT bolster seat projections toward a continued majority. Morena controls 26 state legislatures and 12 of the 17 governorships up for renewal, aiding mobilization ahead of the concurrent federal and local contests. Opposition parties PAN, PRI, and MC trail individually and have yet to form a unified front, limiting their path to the largest bloc. The electoral process formally opened in September 2026 with candidate filings underway, but no late shifts have altered the dominant positioning.