Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 35% implied probability for April's unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, closely trailing 4.4% at 26.5% and 4.2% at 18%, reflecting a tightly contested consensus amid resilient labor market signals. March's BLS Employment Situation report showed nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—exceeding forecasts—and the jobless rate dipping to 4.3% from February's 4.4%, with household survey unemployed falling 332,000. Reinforcing stability, initial jobless claims dropped to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, beating estimates and signaling low layoff activity. Key swing factors include upcoming April 25 claims data and ADP private payrolls preview, ahead of the May 2 BLS release; any softening could tilt odds higher, while continued strength favors sub-4.4% outcomes versus economist medians around 4.3-4.4%.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiApril Unemployment Rate
April Unemployment Rate
4.3% 35%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 18%
4.5% 14%
$16,003 Vol.
$16,003 Vol.
May 8, 2026
≤3.9%
<1%
4.0%
5%
4.1%
7%
4.2%
18%
4.3%
35%
4.4%
28%
4.5%
14%
4.6%
3%
≥4.7%
4%
4.3% 35%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 18%
4.5% 14%
$16,003 Vol.
$16,003 Vol.
May 8, 2026
≤3.9%
$1,629 Vol.
<1%
4.0%
$494 Vol.
5%
4.1%
$1,176 Vol.
7%
4.2%
$1,435 Vol.
18%
4.3%
$1,853 Vol.
35%
4.4%
$5,109 Vol.
28%
4.5%
$918 Vol.
14%
4.6%
$1,059 Vol.
3%
≥4.7%
$2,378 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 35% implied probability for April's unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, closely trailing 4.4% at 26.5% and 4.2% at 18%, reflecting a tightly contested consensus amid resilient labor market signals. March's BLS Employment Situation report showed nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—exceeding forecasts—and the jobless rate dipping to 4.3% from February's 4.4%, with household survey unemployed falling 332,000. Reinforcing stability, initial jobless claims dropped to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, beating estimates and signaling low layoff activity. Key swing factors include upcoming April 25 claims data and ADP private payrolls preview, ahead of the May 2 BLS release; any softening could tilt odds higher, while continued strength favors sub-4.4% outcomes versus economist medians around 4.3-4.4%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
Volume
$16,003Tanggal Berakhir
May 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 35% implied probability for April's unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, closely trailing 4.4% at 26.5% and 4.2% at 18%, reflecting a tightly contested consensus amid resilient labor market signals. March's BLS Employment Situation report showed nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—exceeding forecasts—and the jobless rate dipping to 4.3% from February's 4.4%, with household survey unemployed falling 332,000. Reinforcing stability, initial jobless claims dropped to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, beating estimates and signaling low layoff activity. Key swing factors include upcoming April 25 claims data and ADP private payrolls preview, ahead of the May 2 BLS release; any softening could tilt odds higher, while continued strength favors sub-4.4% outcomes versus economist medians around 4.3-4.4%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$16,003Tanggal Berakhir
May 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 35% implied probability for April's unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, closely trailing 4.4% at 26.5% and 4.2% at 18%, reflecting a tightly contested consensus amid resilient labor market signals. March's BLS Employment Situation report showed nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—exceeding forecasts—and the jobless rate dipping to 4.3% from February's 4.4%, with household survey unemployed falling 332,000. Reinforcing stability, initial jobless claims dropped to 207,000 for the week ended April 11, beating estimates and signaling low layoff activity. Key swing factors include upcoming April 25 claims data and ADP private payrolls preview, ahead of the May 2 BLS release; any softening could tilt odds higher, while continued strength favors sub-4.4% outcomes versus economist medians around 4.3-4.4%.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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