Recent UK economic data and forecaster revisions position 1-2% annual GDP growth as the leading outcome for 2026, with trader-implied odds reflecting consensus around subdued expansion. Official releases show quarterly growth of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.7% over the three months to May, while institutions including the OECD, EY, and IMF project full-year rates near 0.9-1.0%, citing persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a loosening labor market. The Bank of England's July Monetary Policy Report highlighted near-term weakness tied to global supply shocks, tempering earlier expectations. These factors have anchored market-implied probabilities, with 0-1% as the secondary range amid ongoing uncertainty around inflation trajectories and potential further policy easing. Key upcoming releases include monthly GDP estimates and Bank Rate decisions that could influence sentiment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1-2% 63.1%
0-1% 29%
<0 5.1%
3-4% 2.1%
$72,482 Vol.
$72,482 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
<0
5%
0-1%
29%
1-2%
63%
2-3%
8%
3-4%
2%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 63.1%
0-1% 29%
<0 5.1%
3-4% 2.1%
$72,482 Vol.
$72,482 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$11,068 Vol.
5%
0-1%
$18,607 Vol.
29%
1-2%
$23,662 Vol.
63%
2-3%
$4,159 Vol.
8%
3-4%
$3,146 Vol.
2%
4-5%
$8,288 Vol.
<1%
5%+
$3,552 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK economic data and forecaster revisions position 1-2% annual GDP growth as the leading outcome for 2026, with trader-implied odds reflecting consensus around subdued expansion. Official releases show quarterly growth of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.7% over the three months to May, while institutions including the OECD, EY, and IMF project full-year rates near 0.9-1.0%, citing persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a loosening labor market. The Bank of England's July Monetary Policy Report highlighted near-term weakness tied to global supply shocks, tempering earlier expectations. These factors have anchored market-implied probabilities, with 0-1% as the secondary range amid ongoing uncertainty around inflation trajectories and potential further policy easing. Key upcoming releases include monthly GDP estimates and Bank Rate decisions that could influence sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$72,482Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK economic data and forecaster revisions position 1-2% annual GDP growth as the leading outcome for 2026, with trader-implied odds reflecting consensus around subdued expansion. Official releases show quarterly growth of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.7% over the three months to May, while institutions including the OECD, EY, and IMF project full-year rates near 0.9-1.0%, citing persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a loosening labor market. The Bank of England's July Monetary Policy Report highlighted near-term weakness tied to global supply shocks, tempering earlier expectations. These factors have anchored market-implied probabilities, with 0-1% as the secondary range amid ongoing uncertainty around inflation trajectories and potential further policy easing. Key upcoming releases include monthly GDP estimates and Bank Rate decisions that could influence sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$72,482Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK economic data and forecaster revisions position 1-2% annual GDP growth as the leading outcome for 2026, with trader-implied odds reflecting consensus around subdued expansion. Official releases show quarterly growth of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.7% over the three months to May, while institutions including the OECD, EY, and IMF project full-year rates near 0.9-1.0%, citing persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a loosening labor market. The Bank of England's July Monetary Policy Report highlighted near-term weakness tied to global supply shocks, tempering earlier expectations. These factors have anchored market-implied probabilities, with 0-1% as the secondary range amid ongoing uncertainty around inflation trajectories and potential further policy easing. Key upcoming releases include monthly GDP estimates and Bank Rate decisions that could influence sentiment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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