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Ekonomi·Suku Bunga

Will SOFR hit __ in April?

Market icon
Ekonomi·Suku Bunga

Will SOFR hit __ in April?

Apr 30

Apr 30

$20,879 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$20,879 Vol.

Polymarket

↑3.76%

$3,966 Vol.

15%

↑3.74%

$50 Vol.

42%

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.SOFR rates have held steady in April 2026, averaging 3.64% through April 17 with a monthly high of 3.72% and the latest daily print at 3.67% on April 16, closely tracking the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range unchanged since the March FOMC decision. This stability reflects ample repo market liquidity post-quarter-end and tax payment flows, subdued Treasury general account growth, and consistent overnight reverse repo facility take-up around $1 trillion. Polymarket trader consensus implies low odds of hitting elevated thresholds, pricing in anchored short-term rates amid cooling inflation and steady policy expectations. The April 28-29 FOMC meeting looms as the key catalyst, with futures showing over 90% odds of a hold but scrutiny on dot plots for 2026 cut timing; surprise bill auction volatility or liquidity drains could nudge rates near month-end targets before April 30 resolution.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Volume
$20,879
Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.SOFR rates have held steady in April 2026, averaging 3.64% through April 17 with a monthly high of 3.72% and the latest daily print at 3.67% on April 16, closely tracking the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range unchanged since the March FOMC decision. This stability reflects ample repo market liquidity post-quarter-end and tax payment flows, subdued Treasury general account growth, and consistent overnight reverse repo facility take-up around $1 trillion. Polymarket trader consensus implies low odds of hitting elevated thresholds, pricing in anchored short-term rates amid cooling inflation and steady policy expectations. The April 28-29 FOMC meeting looms as the key catalyst, with futures showing over 90% odds of a hold but scrutiny on dot plots for 2026 cut timing; surprise bill auction volatility or liquidity drains could nudge rates near month-end targets before April 30 resolution.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Volume
$20,879
Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between April 1 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before April 30, 2026 by May 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will SOFR hit __ in April?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 8 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "↑3.72%" di 100%, diikuti oleh "↑3.70%" di 100%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will SOFR hit __ in April?" telah menghasilkan $20.9K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 1, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will SOFR hit __ in April?," jelajahi 8 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Will SOFR hit __ in April?" adalah "↑3.72%" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "↑3.70%" di 100%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will SOFR hit __ in April?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.