Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by late April reports that Apple halted development of the next-generation mixed reality headset after weak sales of the original—estimated under 500,000 units—and a disappointing October 2025 M5 chip refresh that made minimal hardware changes. Supply chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo have long forecasted timelines beyond 2027, with no recent production rumors or component orders amid Apple's reported staff reallocation to projects like smart glasses. While a surprise announcement at WWDC in June could shift odds, the seven-month window, persistent ecosystem gaps, and high return rates present formidable barriers to a pre-2027 launch.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by late April reports that Apple halted development of the next-generation mixed reality headset after weak sales of the original—estimated under 500,000 units—and a disappointing October 2025 M5 chip refresh that made minimal hardware changes. Supply chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo have long forecasted timelines beyond 2027, with no recent production rumors or component orders amid Apple's reported staff reallocation to projects like smart glasses. While a surprise announcement at WWDC in June could shift odds, the seven-month window, persistent ecosystem gaps, and high return rates present formidable barriers to a pre-2027 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$4,461Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by late April reports that Apple halted development of the next-generation mixed reality headset after weak sales of the original—estimated under 500,000 units—and a disappointing October 2025 M5 chip refresh that made minimal hardware changes. Supply chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo have long forecasted timelines beyond 2027, with no recent production rumors or component orders amid Apple's reported staff reallocation to projects like smart glasses. While a surprise announcement at WWDC in June could shift odds, the seven-month window, persistent ecosystem gaps, and high return rates present formidable barriers to a pre-2027 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,461Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by late April reports that Apple halted development of the next-generation mixed reality headset after weak sales of the original—estimated under 500,000 units—and a disappointing October 2025 M5 chip refresh that made minimal hardware changes. Supply chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo have long forecasted timelines beyond 2027, with no recent production rumors or component orders amid Apple's reported staff reallocation to projects like smart glasses. While a surprise announcement at WWDC in June could shift odds, the seven-month window, persistent ecosystem gaps, and high return rates present formidable barriers to a pre-2027 launch.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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