Trader consensus reflects 90.5% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, anchored by the original model's dismal sales—shipping just 45,000 units in Q4 2025—prompting drastic production cuts and marketing slashes in January 2026. Apple's pivot to display-free AI smart glasses, targeted for late-2026 unveiling and 2027 launch per Bloomberg reporting, has sidelined high-end headset development, as affirmed by Ming-Chi Kuo's forecast of no new head-mounted devices this year. Absent supply chain signals for mass production or M5 chip integration, the eight-month window poses steep hurdles amid historical delays in spatial computing hardware. WWDC in June or fall events could shift sentiment with surprise teasers, though technical complexities favor postponement.
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects 90.5% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, anchored by the original model's dismal sales—shipping just 45,000 units in Q4 2025—prompting drastic production cuts and marketing slashes in January 2026. Apple's pivot to display-free AI smart glasses, targeted for late-2026 unveiling and 2027 launch per Bloomberg reporting, has sidelined high-end headset development, as affirmed by Ming-Chi Kuo's forecast of no new head-mounted devices this year. Absent supply chain signals for mass production or M5 chip integration, the eight-month window poses steep hurdles amid historical delays in spatial computing hardware. WWDC in June or fall events could shift sentiment with surprise teasers, though technical complexities favor postponement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$2,315Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects 90.5% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, anchored by the original model's dismal sales—shipping just 45,000 units in Q4 2025—prompting drastic production cuts and marketing slashes in January 2026. Apple's pivot to display-free AI smart glasses, targeted for late-2026 unveiling and 2027 launch per Bloomberg reporting, has sidelined high-end headset development, as affirmed by Ming-Chi Kuo's forecast of no new head-mounted devices this year. Absent supply chain signals for mass production or M5 chip integration, the eight-month window poses steep hurdles amid historical delays in spatial computing hardware. WWDC in June or fall events could shift sentiment with surprise teasers, though technical complexities favor postponement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,315Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 90.5% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, anchored by the original model's dismal sales—shipping just 45,000 units in Q4 2025—prompting drastic production cuts and marketing slashes in January 2026. Apple's pivot to display-free AI smart glasses, targeted for late-2026 unveiling and 2027 launch per Bloomberg reporting, has sidelined high-end headset development, as affirmed by Ming-Chi Kuo's forecast of no new head-mounted devices this year. Absent supply chain signals for mass production or M5 chip integration, the eight-month window poses steep hurdles amid historical delays in spatial computing hardware. WWDC in June or fall events could shift sentiment with surprise teasers, though technical complexities favor postponement.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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