Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman's May 11 disclosure that next-generation enclosed headsets remain paused for at least two years amid poor sales of the original Vision Pro and its October 2025 M5 refresh. Apple has reassigned much of the Vision Products Group to Apple Intelligence Siri improvements and lightweight smart glasses development, with the cheaper Vision Air project canceled last year. While visionOS updates continue to bolster the ecosystem, historical product launch timelines and supply chain realities support this bearish outlook; a surprise hardware tease at WWDC in June 2026 or accelerated prototyping could challenge it, though traders see slim odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
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Dec 31, 2026
BARU
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman's May 11 disclosure that next-generation enclosed headsets remain paused for at least two years amid poor sales of the original Vision Pro and its October 2025 M5 refresh. Apple has reassigned much of the Vision Products Group to Apple Intelligence Siri improvements and lightweight smart glasses development, with the cheaper Vision Air project canceled last year. While visionOS updates continue to bolster the ecosystem, historical product launch timelines and supply chain realities support this bearish outlook; a surprise hardware tease at WWDC in June 2026 or accelerated prototyping could challenge it, though traders see slim odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$4,464Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman's May 11 disclosure that next-generation enclosed headsets remain paused for at least two years amid poor sales of the original Vision Pro and its October 2025 M5 refresh. Apple has reassigned much of the Vision Products Group to Apple Intelligence Siri improvements and lightweight smart glasses development, with the cheaper Vision Air project canceled last year. While visionOS updates continue to bolster the ecosystem, historical product launch timelines and supply chain realities support this bearish outlook; a surprise hardware tease at WWDC in June 2026 or accelerated prototyping could challenge it, though traders see slim odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,464Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman's May 11 disclosure that next-generation enclosed headsets remain paused for at least two years amid poor sales of the original Vision Pro and its October 2025 M5 refresh. Apple has reassigned much of the Vision Products Group to Apple Intelligence Siri improvements and lightweight smart glasses development, with the cheaper Vision Air project canceled last year. While visionOS updates continue to bolster the ecosystem, historical product launch timelines and supply chain realities support this bearish outlook; a surprise hardware tease at WWDC in June 2026 or accelerated prototyping could challenge it, though traders see slim odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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