Microsoft's June 2, 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, anchors current trader sentiment. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch on licensed data, matches or exceeds Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro and other multi-step reasoning benchmarks while offering lower inference costs. It entered private preview via Microsoft Foundry alongside six other MAI models, signaling a strategic shift toward reduced OpenAI dependence and tighter integration with Azure, Copilot, and custom silicon. Traders monitor enterprise adoption metrics, public availability timelines, and any follow-up releases or leaderboard gains against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google models. Key near-term catalysts include potential wider previews, benchmark updates, or developer conference reveals before the market's September and December resolution windows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
32%
December 31
50%
$488 Vol.
September 30
$187 Vol.
32%
December 31
$301 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2, 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, anchors current trader sentiment. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch on licensed data, matches or exceeds Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro and other multi-step reasoning benchmarks while offering lower inference costs. It entered private preview via Microsoft Foundry alongside six other MAI models, signaling a strategic shift toward reduced OpenAI dependence and tighter integration with Azure, Copilot, and custom silicon. Traders monitor enterprise adoption metrics, public availability timelines, and any follow-up releases or leaderboard gains against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google models. Key near-term catalysts include potential wider previews, benchmark updates, or developer conference reveals before the market's September and December resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$488Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2, 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, anchors current trader sentiment. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch on licensed data, matches or exceeds Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro and other multi-step reasoning benchmarks while offering lower inference costs. It entered private preview via Microsoft Foundry alongside six other MAI models, signaling a strategic shift toward reduced OpenAI dependence and tighter integration with Azure, Copilot, and custom silicon. Traders monitor enterprise adoption metrics, public availability timelines, and any follow-up releases or leaderboard gains against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google models. Key near-term catalysts include potential wider previews, benchmark updates, or developer conference reveals before the market's September and December resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$488Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft's June 2, 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, anchors current trader sentiment. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch on licensed data, matches or exceeds Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro and other multi-step reasoning benchmarks while offering lower inference costs. It entered private preview via Microsoft Foundry alongside six other MAI models, signaling a strategic shift toward reduced OpenAI dependence and tighter integration with Azure, Copilot, and custom silicon. Traders monitor enterprise adoption metrics, public availability timelines, and any follow-up releases or leaderboard gains against OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google models. Key near-term catalysts include potential wider previews, benchmark updates, or developer conference reveals before the market's September and December resolution windows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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