Moonshot AI has sustained a fast release cadence with the Kimi series, shipping major updates roughly every one to three months through 2026, including K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 flagship on July 16 with full open weights following on July 27. K3’s strong results on agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and benchmarks near proprietary leaders like GPT-5.6 and Claude models have intensified competition in the open-weight space while driving unprecedented user demand that forced Moonshot to pause new subscriptions and prioritize existing paid users amid compute constraints. The company’s focus on scaling Agent Swarm capabilities, native vision, and a 1-million-token context window, alongside preparations for a potential Hong Kong IPO, positions the next iteration as a key test of sustained frontier progress. Traders are watching for official announcements on development timelines, inference partnerships, or funding updates that could clarify when Kimi K4 might arrive.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$16,714 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
4%
December 31, 2026
13%
$16,714 Vol.
October 31, 2026
$9,433 Vol.
4%
December 31, 2026
$7,282 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI has sustained a fast release cadence with the Kimi series, shipping major updates roughly every one to three months through 2026, including K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 flagship on July 16 with full open weights following on July 27. K3’s strong results on agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and benchmarks near proprietary leaders like GPT-5.6 and Claude models have intensified competition in the open-weight space while driving unprecedented user demand that forced Moonshot to pause new subscriptions and prioritize existing paid users amid compute constraints. The company’s focus on scaling Agent Swarm capabilities, native vision, and a 1-million-token context window, alongside preparations for a potential Hong Kong IPO, positions the next iteration as a key test of sustained frontier progress. Traders are watching for official announcements on development timelines, inference partnerships, or funding updates that could clarify when Kimi K4 might arrive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$16,714Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI has sustained a fast release cadence with the Kimi series, shipping major updates roughly every one to three months through 2026, including K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 flagship on July 16 with full open weights following on July 27. K3’s strong results on agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and benchmarks near proprietary leaders like GPT-5.6 and Claude models have intensified competition in the open-weight space while driving unprecedented user demand that forced Moonshot to pause new subscriptions and prioritize existing paid users amid compute constraints. The company’s focus on scaling Agent Swarm capabilities, native vision, and a 1-million-token context window, alongside preparations for a potential Hong Kong IPO, positions the next iteration as a key test of sustained frontier progress. Traders are watching for official announcements on development timelines, inference partnerships, or funding updates that could clarify when Kimi K4 might arrive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$16,714Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI has sustained a fast release cadence with the Kimi series, shipping major updates roughly every one to three months through 2026, including K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 flagship on July 16 with full open weights following on July 27. K3’s strong results on agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and benchmarks near proprietary leaders like GPT-5.6 and Claude models have intensified competition in the open-weight space while driving unprecedented user demand that forced Moonshot to pause new subscriptions and prioritize existing paid users amid compute constraints. The company’s focus on scaling Agent Swarm capabilities, native vision, and a 1-million-token context window, alongside preparations for a potential Hong Kong IPO, positions the next iteration as a key test of sustained frontier progress. Traders are watching for official announcements on development timelines, inference partnerships, or funding updates that could clarify when Kimi K4 might arrive.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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