Elevated inflation, with core PCE running near 3.4% and total PCE around 3.8% in recent readings, combined with a resilient labor market featuring 4.1% unemployment and steady job gains, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s remaining 2026 meetings. Following the unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range in September and the hawkish dot plot signaling one additional increase by year-end, market-implied odds favor a pause at the October 28–29 FOMC followed by a December hike. Recent minutes reinforced data dependence without committing to consecutive moves, while softer September payrolls and mixed inflation prints have tempered October hike probabilities relative to December. These dynamics position the Hike–Pause–Hike sequence as the dominant consensus among traders with capital at risk.