Recent FOMC actions and projections anchor trader pricing for the remaining 2026 meetings. The September 16 unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, paired with the dot plot’s median 4.1% year-end rate and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional increase, shifted implied odds toward paths featuring a further hike. Elevated September PCE inflation near 3.7% and resilient growth with a 4.1% unemployment rate reinforced the hawkish tilt, while October 7 minutes confirmed broad support for tightening before year-end. Markets now price the October 28 decision as finely balanced between pause and hike, with December carrying higher odds of a final 25-basis-point move, producing the current leading Hike–Pause–Hike configuration at 65.5%.