Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with August PCE at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 3.0%, alongside stable labor market conditions, underpins the 63.5% market-implied odds for a September hike followed by an October pause and December hike. The September 16 decision raised the federal funds target to 3.75%-4.00%, and the October 7 minutes showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Recent softer employment and inflation readings have shifted trader consensus toward a hold at the October 28-29 meeting, with December now viewed as the more probable window for further tightening amid upside inflation risks and resilient growth.