The European Union's institutional framework, anchored in treaties requiring unanimous consent or coordinated withdrawals by a majority of its 27 member states, underpins traders' strong consensus against dissolution by the end of 2026. No member state has initiated Article 50 procedures, and ongoing activities—including budget negotiations for 2028-2034, enlargement roadmaps for candidates such as Ukraine and Moldova, and single-market operations—reflect continued integration rather than fragmentation. Public and expert discourse highlights governance strains from 2027 national elections in major states, yet these lie outside the market window and center on policy blockages rather than exits. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented events such as simultaneous formal withdrawal notifications from multiple large economies or a collective treaty repeal, outcomes without current precedent or momentum.