US formal declarations of war are exceedingly rare—last authorized by Congress in 1942—with presidents relying on Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMF) for actions against Iran, including the 2020 Soleimani strike. Tensions persist amid Iran's proxy support for groups like the Houthis, whose Red Sea attacks continue disrupting shipping, but no recent escalations signal a declaration. The most significant development in the past 30 days was Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel; the US provided defensive aid like THAAD systems but avoided offensive involvement, prioritizing de-escalation. President Biden's administration has issued warnings to Iran against targeting US forces, while President-elect Trump's hawkish rhetoric awaits his January 20 inauguration. Traders watch for congressional action, unlikely without major provocation, and potential diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ?
Les États-Unis déclareront-ils officiellement la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ?
$4,260,259 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
31 mars
<1%
30 avril
2%
31 décembre
10%
$4,260,259 Vol.
31 mars
$3,931,344 Vol.
<1%
30 avril
$28,544 Vol.
2%
31 décembre
$300,370 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US formal declarations of war are exceedingly rare—last authorized by Congress in 1942—with presidents relying on Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMF) for actions against Iran, including the 2020 Soleimani strike. Tensions persist amid Iran's proxy support for groups like the Houthis, whose Red Sea attacks continue disrupting shipping, but no recent escalations signal a declaration. The most significant development in the past 30 days was Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel; the US provided defensive aid like THAAD systems but avoided offensive involvement, prioritizing de-escalation. President Biden's administration has issued warnings to Iran against targeting US forces, while President-elect Trump's hawkish rhetoric awaits his January 20 inauguration. Traders watch for congressional action, unlikely without major provocation, and potential diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$4,260,259Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US formal declarations of war are exceedingly rare—last authorized by Congress in 1942—with presidents relying on Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMF) for actions against Iran, including the 2020 Soleimani strike. Tensions persist amid Iran's proxy support for groups like the Houthis, whose Red Sea attacks continue disrupting shipping, but no recent escalations signal a declaration. The most significant development in the past 30 days was Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel; the US provided defensive aid like THAAD systems but avoided offensive involvement, prioritizing de-escalation. President Biden's administration has issued warnings to Iran against targeting US forces, while President-elect Trump's hawkish rhetoric awaits his January 20 inauguration. Traders watch for congressional action, unlikely without major provocation, and potential diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,260,259Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US formal declarations of war are exceedingly rare—last authorized by Congress in 1942—with presidents relying on Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMF) for actions against Iran, including the 2020 Soleimani strike. Tensions persist amid Iran's proxy support for groups like the Houthis, whose Red Sea attacks continue disrupting shipping, but no recent escalations signal a declaration. The most significant development in the past 30 days was Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel; the US provided defensive aid like THAAD systems but avoided offensive involvement, prioritizing de-escalation. President Biden's administration has issued warnings to Iran against targeting US forces, while President-elect Trump's hawkish rhetoric awaits his January 20 inauguration. Traders watch for congressional action, unlikely without major provocation, and potential diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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