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Opération terrestre de lutte contre les cartels aux États-Unis au Mexique d'ici le… ?

Market icon

Opération terrestre de lutte contre les cartels aux États-Unis au Mexique d'ici le… ?

Jun 30

Jun 30

$1,103,974 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,103,974 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$1,068,747 Vol.

7%

30 juin

$35,227 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.

Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,103,974
Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 12, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Opération terrestre de lutte contre les cartels aux États-Unis au Mexique d'ici le… ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 juin" at 22%, followed by "31 mars" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Opération terrestre de lutte contre les cartels aux États-Unis au Mexique d'ici le… ?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Opération terrestre de lutte contre les cartels aux États-Unis au Mexique d'ici le… ?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Opération terrestre de lutte contre les cartels aux États-Unis au Mexique d'ici le… ?" is "30 juin" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 mars" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Opération terrestre de lutte contre les cartels aux États-Unis au Mexique d'ici le… ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.