Polymarket's trader consensus implies a subdued probability for TSLA closing above the key threshold on March 18, anchored by recent post-Robotaxi event volatility that saw shares drop 10% from $260 peaks despite solid Q3 earnings showing 20.3% auto gross margins and 463K deliveries beating lowered estimates. Bulls hinge on accelerating FSD adoption and energy storage revenue growth, while bears cite softening China demand and persistent high-interest-rate pressure on EV financing. Current price near $220 tests 200-day SMA support at $215; upside catalysts include January Q4 earnings and potential Fed cuts easing affordability. Volatility remains elevated ahead of CPI releases, reflecting capital-weighted sentiment on Tesla's autonomy pivot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour380 $
93%
390 $
94%
400 $
47%
410 $
9%
420 $
2%
$1,177 Vol.
380 $
93%
390 $
94%
400 $
47%
410 $
9%
420 $
2%
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket's trader consensus implies a subdued probability for TSLA closing above the key threshold on March 18, anchored by recent post-Robotaxi event volatility that saw shares drop 10% from $260 peaks despite solid Q3 earnings showing 20.3% auto gross margins and 463K deliveries beating lowered estimates. Bulls hinge on accelerating FSD adoption and energy storage revenue growth, while bears cite softening China demand and persistent high-interest-rate pressure on EV financing. Current price near $220 tests 200-day SMA support at $215; upside catalysts include January Q4 earnings and potential Fed cuts easing affordability. Volatility remains elevated ahead of CPI releases, reflecting capital-weighted sentiment on Tesla's autonomy pivot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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